by Tony GerdemanThis Saturday's game will be the 37th meeting between Ohio State and Michigan State, with the Buckeyes holding a 24-12 advantage.
The Buckeyes have won eleven of sixteen at Spartan Stadium.
In its history, Michigan State is 3-12-1 against the #1 ranked team in the nation. However, two of those three wins have come against the Buckeyes. They are 2-3 against Ohio State all-time when the Buckeyes have been ranked #1. Included in that are the last two such meetings, in 1974 and 1998.
Since November of 1997, the Spartans are 9-3 against Top 10 opponents. However, during John L. Smith's tenure, Michigan State is only 2-3.
Michigan State is 8-19 all-time against ranked Ohio State teams.
The Buckeyes come into the game with the nation's longest winning streak at thirteen straight games.
The Buckeyes have won four straight in this series, and Jim Tressel has never lost to John L. Smith (4-0).
Ohio State has a 57-8-1 all-time record when ranked #1.
When Michigan State Has the Ball
The Spartans will be the most balanced offense the Buckeyes play all year.
They run for 194 yards per game and throw for 219 yards. And they are equally dangerous doing either.
Fortunately for the Buckeyes, three of the Spartans weapons will not be available.
Leading rusher Javon Ringer is out with a season-ending injury. Receiver Matt Trannon, second on the team with 25 receptions, is also out with an injury. Starting tight end Kellen Davis continues to sit for disciplinary reasons.
The key guy for Michigan State, obviously, continues to be quarterback Drew Stanton. As long as Stanton is taking snaps, the Spartans will be dangerous.
Stanton owns the number two spot in the Big Ten in all-time completion percentage at 64.9%.
While only owning an 11-13 career record in his 24 starts, Stanton usually puts up numbers no matter the opponent.
In last year's game against Ohio State, Stanton threw for 340 yards and ran for 62 yards on twelve carries. Of course, he was also sacked twelve times.
Linebackers James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman will play most of the game because the Buckeyes should be in the nickel package for the duration. They will have a busy day because not only will they have to play the run, but they will also have to watch out for Stanton's mobility. Then, after they've done those two things, if it's a pass, they have to tackle the receivers that are going across the middle.
Marcus Freeman will need to play his best game as a Buckeye.
Michigan State was pretty well bottled-up in all aspects last week against Michigan, but an area where they had success was the roll-out. Expect that to continue this week.
Free safety Jamario O'Neal will be making his second start and his ability to not let anybody get behind him will be key. With Stanton rolling out, plays will stay available for a longer period of time, meaning that receivers will have a little more time to get open, or to get deep.
Don't be surprised to see a few more blitzes to try and negate the Spartans' planned mobility. If Stanton is going to be running around back there, it's best that he do it on the defense's terms.
When Stanton does drop back to pass, he'll be mainly looking for receivers Kerry Reed and Jerramy Scott. Reed leads the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns (26-334-4). And with Trannon out, Scott gets bumped up the food chain.
With the Buckeyes playing so much nickel, look for cornerback Antonio Smith to play the slot and Donald Washington to play the boundary corner.
Cornerback Malcolm Jenkins hasn't really been tested much this season, but if the Spartans are going to be rolling to the wide side, that means Stanton will be throwing to Jenkins' side more often than not. The roll out will also mean that half of the defense will be in a position to make a play on the ball. Keep in mind that this defense leads the nation in interceptions, with twelve.
The running attack has taken a severe hit with the loss of Javon Ringer. It virtually eliminated the speed game and the outside option attack from the Spartans playbook.
The lead ball-carrier now is 260-pound Jehuu Caulcrick. Caulcrick has run for 289 yards and six touchdowns on the season. He is averaging 4.5 yards per carry. He isn't the fastest guy out of the hole, which should give defensive tackle Quinn Pitcock a chance to get a hand on him. He is, however, tough to bring down once he gets through the defensive line.
It will be up to an inconsistent offensive line to provide enough room for the offense to move. While the offensive line does pave the way for a 5.2 yard per carry rushing average, much of that average is thanks to Ringer's 7.2 yards per carry. They also give up two sacks per game, and it would be more if Stanton weren't so mobile.
Expect to see defensive end Vernon Gholston be very active on Saturday. The coaches have him dropping back into coverage now, as we saw last week on his interception. The offense needs to account for his whereabouts on every snap, and that's going to be a tough thing for them to do.
The Buckeyes lead the Big Ten in sacks with twenty. Last year they notched twelve against Drew Stanton. Don't think for a second that he has forgotten.
Special Teams
Spartan punter Brandon Fields is averaging an astounding 46.1 yards per punt, with a long of 73. Of his 23 punts, only two have been fair caught. And only five have been returned. Which means that his kicks just usually aren't returnable. Seven of his kicks have been inside the twenty, and the four have resulted in touchbacks. Not only does he kick the ball a long way, but he kicks it accurately and the Spartan defense gets down to cover punts extremely well. You get the feeling that they won't mind challenging Ted Ginn--of course they've been burned on that before.
Todd Boleski handles the kickoffs. Only ten of his 34 kicks have resulted in touchbacks, which leads you to believe that they won't be kicking deep. Adding weight to that assumption, the Spartans are last in the conference in kickoff coverage.
Freshman Brett Swenson handles the place-kicking. He is 7-9 on field goals this season, with a long of 43. He has made all 22 of his extra point attempts.
DeMond Williams is the kick returner, averaging 19.8 yards per return, with a long of 37. Terry Love returns the punts, and he's only averaging 8.9 yards per return, with a long of 22 yards.
When Ohio State Has the Ball
The Buckeyes have scored at least 24 points in thirteen straight games. The Spartans give up 25.7 per game, so logic may lead us to believe that that streak will continue.
If it does continue, it will be up to quarterback Troy Smith to get things rolling.
Smith continues to lead the conference in passing efficiency (170.56), completion percentage (68.2) and touchdown passes (15).
In the Spartans' only other game against a mobile quarterback, Illinois' Juice Williams ran the ball 17 times for 103 yards. While Troy Smith won't run the ball that many times, it gives you an indication of the effectiveness that he could have in that area. When Troy Smith rushes for 50 yards or more, the Buckeyes are 8-1.
However, this season, Smith's preference is to sit back in the pocket and let his receivers do most of the work. That is evidenced by Ted Ginn's 33 receptions, which ranks second in the conference, and Anthony Gonzalez' 27 receptions, which ranks fourth.
Ginn and Gonzalez seemingly alternate from week to week as to who will be the go-to guy. In the last couple of weeks, veteran receiver Roy Hall has gotten back into the mix. His inclusion, along with the continued development of Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline, and the preliminary emergence of Ray Small, give the Buckeyes the deepest and most versatile receiving corps in the country.
With the depth that the Buckeyes have at receiver, it has allowed Anthony Gonzalez to continue to play in the slot. It's a luxury for the offense, and a death sentence for the defense.
The Spartans hope to be able to match up with the Buckeyes' spread with their base 4-2-5 alignment.
In this defense, SirDarean Adams plays the Bandit, which is a hybrid safety-linebacker. He plays at 230 pounds, so he won't have any chance if he is ever matched up with Gonzalez.
The Spartan secondary is talented, but they can only do so much on their own. Michigan State has only sacked the quarterback seven times this season, which means that even if the Spartan secondary has good coverage initially, they can't stay with the receivers as long as they need to. As proof of this, the Spartans have given up fifteen touchdown passes in six games, which is the most in the conference.
Troy Smith should have plenty of time to throw and there should be a plethora of weapons to throw to. The Spartans tend to give up the big play, and the Buckeyes tend to look for it.
The Spartans are fifth in the conference in run defense, giving up 124.3 yards per game. They have only given up three rushing touchdowns on the season. But that's more due to the fact that teams haven't gotten close enough to where they need to pound it in, choosing instead to throw for the aforementioned fifteen touchdowns.
The Spartans' red zone defense is dead last in the conference, as opponents have scored on all fifteen of their trips into the red zone--nine of which have been touchdowns.
Looking to carry the ball from one red zone to the other will be running back Antonio Pittman. Pittman had a quiet week last week, as he wasn't really needed, though he still scored two touchdowns. The coaches may have been saving him for this week, so don't be surprised to see Pittman get over twenty carries on Saturday.
The Buckeyes are 16-1 when Antonio Pittman has at least sixteen carries. The lone loss being against Texas last year.
Given that the Spartans run a 4-2-5, it's no surprise that three of their five leading tacklers are the two safeties and the bandit.
Free safety Otis Wiley is only a sophomore, but he shows a knack for the ball carrier. He leads the team with 46 tackles, including five tackles for loss.
Linebacker David Herron is second on the team in tackles with 36.
The most disruptive player on the field, however, is defensive tackle Clifton Ryan. He leads the team with three sacks, but much more impressive are his thirteen quarterback hurries. If anybody on the defensive line could keep containment, that would help the defensive production greatly.
Special Teams
The Buckeyes are second in the conference with 41.4 net yards per punt. (Michigan State is first with 43.9.) Of punter A.J. Trapasso's 24 punts, only six have been returned, for a total of 25 yards.
Despite having a bit of trouble on kickoffs last week, kicker Aaron Pettrey has still put 19 of his 28 kickoffs deep enough to be touchbacks. Pettrey has only made four of his seven field goal attempts, but he leads the Big Ten with 25 extra points in his 25 attempts.
The Buckeyes may not have much luck on punt returns this week, as the Spartans are stellar in this regard. The kick returns will most likely be done by the up-men on squibs or pooches.
How It'll End Up
The weather may be a factor, as the current forecast is calling for temperatures in the 40s with rain/snow showers.
The last time Troy Smith played in bad weather, he had his poorest performance of the year.
But so did Drew Stanton.
So let's just assume that the weather is a wash...so to speak.
The Buckeyes will establish the run, and hit timely play action passes.
Troy Smith won't have to run as much this week, but he'll still break containment a few times.
He'll find Ted Ginn for a long touchdown down the sideline.
The Spartans will move the ball between the 30-yard lines, but the Buckeye secondary matches up very well against the Spartan receivers.
The defensive line will contain Jehuu Caulcrick for the most part, but the back seven will have trouble with him. So much so, that you can expect another one of those seven-minute quarter-killers like last week.
But Jim Tressel won't mind. All he wants is a non-stop clock when it comes to road games where he has a lead.
Antonio Pittman will carry the ball over twenty times for around 130 yards. He'll extend his touchdown streak to twelve straight games with a score.
John L. Smith will outsmart himself and one of the Buckeye up-men will return a kick for a touchdown.
And Michigan State's two-game winning streak against #1 ranked Ohio State teams will come to an end.
Ohio State 30 - Michigan State 17.
Return to the-OZone Front Page
(c) 2006 The O-Zone, O-Zone
Communications, Inc. All rights reserved.
This material may not be published, rebroadcast,rewritten, or redistributed.