Football
Big Ten Countdown - No. 11, Illinois
By Tony Gerdeman

No. 11, Illinois

Predicted Finish 5-7 (2-6)

Two-Cent Overview

Illinois is going to be better than they were during last year's 2-10 season. However, their schedule doesn't really lend themselves to more than six wins, and that may be stretching it. The Illini return eighteen starters, but they still have no idea how to win.

Schedule
Sept. 1 Missouri (at St. Louis) (L)
Sept. 8 Western Illinois (W)
Sept. 15 at Syracuse (W)
Sept. 22 at Indiana (L)
Sept. 29 Penn State (W)
Oct. 6 Wisconsin (L)
Oct. 13 at Iowa (L)
Oct. 20 Michigan (L)
Oct. 27 Ball State (W)
Nov. 3 at Minnesota (L)
Nov. 10 at Ohio State (L)
Nov. 17 Northwestern (W)

Goal

A bowl game. To go from two wins to a bowl season in the course of one year would be a pretty remarkable advancement for Illinois. However, looking at the schedule, Illinois is going to have to upset a team or two along the way to get there.

Five Questions Looking For Answers

1. Will quarterback Juice Williams be able to complete more than 40% of his passes this season?
2. Can the Illini find a complement for talented cornerback Vontae Davis?
3. A proponent of having "a pair and a spare", does Ron Zook have anybody other than Rashard Mendenhall to carry the ball?
4. Is this the year Ron Zook finally beats a Big Ten team at home?
5. At what point will the on-field results start to match the recruiting successes?

Something To Look For

Juice Williams' improvement as a passer. Williams started nine games as a true freshman last year, but only completed 39.5% of his passes. Much more is being expected of Williams as a passer, but don't expect Williams to stop running. His 576 yards rushing last season set a season and career record for Illinois quarterbacks.

Returning Starters

Nine on offense, nine on defense and both the kicker and punter.

Best Player

Linebacker J Leman. Leman led the Big Ten in tackles last season with 152 (12.7 per game), which was good enough for third in the nation. He's smart (he graduated in three years and is currently enrolled in graduate school) and he knows where he needs to be every single down. It would be a shock if he didn't lead the Big Ten in tackles again.

Second Best Player

Quarterback Juice Williams. Despite his rough edges as a passer, Williams is as dangerous as any playmaker in the conference. He already owns the Illini career record for touchdown passes over 60 yards (3). He also rushed for over 50 yards in six of his twelve games last season, including two 100-yard efforts. The only thing keeping the Illini from having one of the better offenses in the conference is Williams' ability to avoid the terrible passing day. Last year he had games where his completion numbers were 2-10, 9-32, 13-33, 8-20, 8-29 and 4-17. That won't get anybody to a bowl game.

Best Chance For a Big Loss

Missouri. Missouri will probably be the most explosive offense the Illini face all season long (sorry Michigan). And no matter what Ron Zook thinks he has on the field, he won't really know until the first game. It's a tough way to start the season for a team hoping they're better than they probably are.

Most Important Game

Penn State. The last time Penn State came to Champaign-Urbana, they left with a 63-10 victory. Don't think that that won't be brought up by Ron Zook. The Nittany Lions open up Illinois' home Big Ten season and this could be the game that changes the Illini hopes from five wins to seven wins or more. If they do manage to win, their confidence will be bursting. If they lose, they could begin thinking that 2007 is the same as it ever was.

Best Road Game To Pack Up The Family Truckster And Travel To

Missouri. While not technically a road game, the game is in St. Louis. It's the kickoff to a possibly promising season against a team battling for a BCS berth. And the game is against a team from a bordering state! This game is made for traveling and a 50/50 fan split. However, make sure you bring enough face paint for the entire family.

Best Reason They Won't Be Undefeated

They play too many games.

Best Reason They Will Be Undefeated

Juice Williams becomes Troy Smith. (And Florida loses along the way.)

Game They Shouldn't Lose, But Could

Ball State. Everybody should remember what Ball State almost did in Ann Arbor last year, losing 34-26 with the ball in scoring position late. Ball State returns around fourteen starters and will have one of the better offenses in the MAC. Ball State went 0-3 against the Big Ten last year, but only lost by an average of six points. Also, this is Illinois' Homecoming game. Expect Ball State to use that as motivation.

Player People Are Expecting Too Much From

Quarterback Juice Williams. You can't go from a terrible passer to a good passer in one season. Look at Penn State's Anthony Morelli for proof of that. So to expect much more than a 50% completion clip might be foolish. Yes, Williams does other things, but the difference between four wins and eight wins for this team is Williams' efficiency. He's still a year away.

Player People Will Be Pleasantly Surprised By

Running back Rashard Mendenhall. As a true sophomore last season, Mendenhall finished tenth in the conference in rushing, despite only averaging 6.5 carries per game. He led the league with an 8.2 yard per carry average in 2006. He also had three plays from scrimmage over 75 yards, including a reception. Obviously, his average will drop this season as he gets his 17-22 carries per game, but the potential is still there for a touchdown on any given play. He should be especially dangerous this season with Juice Williams running the option. Ron Zook told Mendenhall that this was his year, so expect to see a lot of him in 2007.

Best Newcomer

Wide receiver Arrelious Benn. Benn, a true freshman, enrolled in the winter and was one of the Illini's spring stars. Ron Zook seems convinced that Benn has what it takes to make an impact, saying "He's as hard of a worker as anyone I've ever been around. He doesn't ask for anything. He just tries to compete." Benn is a strong 6'2" 210 and has the makings of a dominating receiver. He is reminiscent of former Buckeye David Boston.

Game On The Schedule That Would Make Bret Bielema Jealous

Sept. 8 Western Illinois. This game would fit in with Bielema's philosophy of preferring to schedule only easterly and westerly teams, as the northerly and southerly teams tend to be a little too dangerous.

Something They Do Well

Make something out of nothing. Juice Williams is a tremendous improviser and given the talent at the skill positions for Illinois, everybody needs to be accounted for at all times. Williams has a knack for getting out of trouble and looking downfield...way downfield.

Something They Don't Do So Well

Win at home. Still. Last year, the Illini went 1-6 at home, beating only Eastern Illinois and losing to both Syracuse and Ohio. They only have one home conference win in the last four seasons, and that was a 26-22 win over Indiana.

What's Improved?

Experience. There are currently 35 players on Illinois’ roster who have started at least one game, and only one is a senior. Last year, Illinois was incredibly young. For the most part, they are now a year older. They have to allow their experience to get them through the tough situations this season. And hopefully for the Illini, their experience will also allow them to improve their -15 turnover ratio from last season.

What's Gotten Worse?

Irrational expectations. Last year, nobody was expecting a bowl season from the Illini. This year, many are already booking their hotels for the Motor City Bowl. Never before have so many people looked so forward to a trip to Detroit in December.

Anything Else We Should Know About?

Ron Zook feels defensive tackle Chris Norwell is as talented as any tackle in the Big Ten and says he has NFL potential. Norwell anchored the defensive line last year and even more is expected of him this season.

Anything Else?

You might make it a point to look for 23-year old freshman defensive back Bo Flowers when you watch the Illini. (And at 6’2” 225, he probably won’t be that hard to find.) Flowers went the baseball route out of high school and spent four years with the Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs organizations. In 2002, he was named the Chicago Sun Times “Male Athlete of the Year”, so Flowers comes to Champaign with expectations--of his own and others‘.

One Prediction

Cornerback Vontae Davis will be second-team All Big Ten this season.

Did you know (Media Guide factoid)

From a snippet entitled "Ron Zook: The Tireless Worker"...When Ron Zook was on John Cooper's Ohio State coaching staff, they were on the road recruiting when Cooper wanted to stop for seafood. Zook zipped through a Shoney's drive-thru for clam chowder.

Coach Speak

What he says: Zook on Illinois' 2007 signing class..."We tell our guys to come in expecting to play. If they're not expecting to play they won't have a chance to play. If this class is as good as last year's, we're going to be cooking with gas."

What it means: If you're a Kingsford man, you redshirt.

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