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Ohio State vs. Illinois Preview by Tony Gerdeman |
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Since this series began in 1902, Ohio State and Illinois have played 94 times. In that span, the Buckeyes have built up a 60-30-4 advantage over the Fighting Illini.
The two schools also play for the Illibuck Trophy, which started as a live turtle back in 1925. In 1927, after the turtle died due to wear and tear, it was decided that the trophy should instead be a wooden turtle because it would be less likely to die.
The Illibuck Trophy is the second-oldest trophy in the Big Ten, behind the Little Brown Jug. Ohio State leads the Illibuck series 56-23-2.
Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel will be coaching in his 100th game at Ohio State. He has compiled an 81-18 record since he was hired in 2001. Tressel is 3-2 against Illinois.
Illinois is 11-24 against Ohio State when the Buckeyes are ranked.
Jim Tressel is 24-7 on the road in the Big Ten and the Buckeyes have won fourteen consecutive road games, a school record.
Ohio State and Illinois have split the last eighteen games in this series.
When Illinois Has The Ball
The Illini lead the conference in total offense with 447.6 yards per game. They also lead in passing yardage with 277.9 yards per game.
Illinois quarterback Juice Williams is averaging 334.6 yards of offense per game, which leads the conference and is seventh in the nation.
Williams has four games of at least 300 yards passing, including two games of over 400 yards passing. In those four games, the Illini are only 1-3 with their lone win coming against Michigan. Illinois is 0-2 when Williams has passed for over 400 yards. Williams’ turnovers are up as well. He has already thrown fourteen interceptions after throwing just twelve last year. Of course, he already has 52 more attempts this season than he had all of last season.
Williams’ top target is sophomore receiver Arrelious Benn. Benn has 60 receptions for 947 yards, but has only managed to find the end zone three times through the air. Despite his lack of touchdowns, there is no more dangerous player in the Big Ten. Benn is fast and stronger than any defensive back who will be matched against him.
Benn will get the ball all over the field and will be lined up anywhere allowed by the rule book. He will also carry the ball out of the backfield. The linebackers need to be careful not to get matched up with Benn whenever possible.
With the pass-focused spread offense of Illinois, look for the Buckeyes to continue with their nickel defense. That usually means safety Jermale Hines sees the field. However, with Hines’ injury last week, it remains to be seen how much of a part he will play in the defense.
It may be a better idea to go with three cornerbacks instead of three safeties, considering how much the Illini pass. That would allow cornerback Donald Washington to match up with the third receiver on the field. Often that third receiver will be Jeff Cumberland who will provide a large (6’5” 251) match up for anybody covering him.
Illinois loves to go deep and much of the time the deep throws will come off of scrambles and broken routes. The safeties need to stay deep and the cornerbacks can’t get caught looking into the backfield or else their receivers will leave them and head deep.
Williams is leading the Illini in rushing this season as well. His 577 yards rushing are two more than running back Daniel Dufrene who, though averaging 5.6 yards per carry, has been somewhat of a disappointment this season.
The Illini are looking for a running back to emerge as a workhorse. It was hoped that Dufrene would be that running back, but he only has one 100-yard rushing game on the season. Freshman Jason Ford emerged four games ago against Indiana with a 172-yard effort, but in his last two games, he has only managed five yards on seventeen carries. If Illinois is successful running the ball on Saturday, Juice Williams will have to be a large part of that.
The Illinois special teams are a tale of two teams. The return teams are very dangerous, led by Arrelious Benn on punt returns and kickoff returns. Benn has a long kickoff return of 61 yards, but he’s just second on the team to A.J. Jenkins, who is averaging 24.4 yards per return with a long of 96 yards, which went for a touchdown.
The inconsistent portion of the Illini special teams is their kicking game. Place-kicker Matt Eller is 12-17 on field goals and 36-38 on extra points. Eller has a decent leg--his long is 51 yards, however, he is just 5-8 on field goals under 40 yards. His consistency is his biggest problem this season. He has, however, made six of his last seven field goal attempts.
Punter Anthony Santella is averaging 39.6 yards per punt and is a large reason why the Illini are tenth in punting in the Big Ten. He has only six fair catches in 44 punts, so he kicks a very returnable ball.
When Ohio State Has The Ball
Last week against Northwestern, the Buckeyes found themselves in the position of having to pass in order to open up the running game. If the same thing happens this week, quarterback Terrelle Pryor and the Ohio State offensive line will need to slow down the Illinois pass rush, which leads the Big Ten with 3.2 sacks per game.
The Illini rotate their defensive linemen, so they will generally be fresh throughout the game, and speed rushers have given the Buckeyes trouble in the past. To counter this, Jim Tressel may want to roll Pryor out in order to move the pocket. He showed last week that he’s throwing the ball better on the move than he has in the past. This would eliminate some of the pass rush and allow Pryor to make plays outside of the pocket, which he excels at.
When the pass blocking is working, Pryor will be throwing against the tenth-ranked pass efficiency defense in the Big Ten. Cornerback Vontae Davis is a fantastic player, but there are lanes to throw the ball against the Illini. Last week, Pryor seemed comfortable throwing the ball over the middle of the field. The opportunity is there for him to continue that same strategy this week.
Pryor is currently leading the Big Ten in passing efficiency and his 65.1 completion percentage is also tops in the league. He is showing tremendous maturity and an understanding of the importance of protecting the ball that belies his age and experience. The Illini will attempt to rattle him at all stops, but they would be the first team to accomplish such a feat.
Illinois will likely start out trying to stop the run, so the passing game should have success early on if Jim Tressel chooses to use it. What will likely happen, however, is that the Buckeyes will attempt to pound the ball with running back Chris Wells repeatedly until something gives. Illinois’ defense is allowing 142.1 yards rushing per game, and you would think that the Buckeyes would need at least that to get the win on Saturday.
Given enough carries Wells is more than likely going to break a long one. Only once this season has he been held without at least one 20-yard carry, and that was in the loss to Penn State.
The Buckeyes have not had much success running the ball on the Illini of late. Last season, Illinois held Wells to just 76 yards on 20 carries. The year before that, Antonio Pittman carried the ball 32 times and managed just 58 yards. Even in the Buckeyes’ 40-2 win over Illinois in 2005, Pittman rushed for 96 yards on 22 carries, but could only manage a long run of 16 yards.
Illinois always comes out geared to stop the run, and the Buckeyes haven’t tried to counter with the pass since 2005, when they threw for 324 yards against the Illini.
Regardless of whether the Buckeyes are running or passing, middle linebacker Brit Miller will be looking to get into the backfield and mae a tackle. Miller leads the conference in tackles per game (11.0) and is third with 15.5 tackles for loss. He also has six sacks. He will blitz on any down and has an incredible ability to bring down even the most mobile quarterbacks.
The Ohio State special teams have been a consistent unit for the most part this season, but will be without punt returner Ray Small again this week. In his place, receivers Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline will likely share duties. They are back there for their head and their hands, more than their feet.
One player who is emerging as a playmaker at kick returner is freshman receiver Lamaar Thomas. He is averaging 23.9 yards per return, but is getting more comfortable by the week. Illinois is ninth in the conference in kickoff coverage, so Thomas looks to have an opportunity to make plays this week.
How It Will End Up
Last year, it took Juice Williams’ best game coupled with Todd Boeckman’s worst game--and a phantom touchdown drive to open the game--for the Illini to beat the Buckeyes. Since that game, it has been painfully obvious for Buckeye fans everywhere that Juice Williams will never perform poorly against the Buckeyes again.
Williams’ pinpoint accuracy will return after a year-long hiatus, so don’t get upset when he’s making throws that you haven’t seen from him since the last time you saw him against the Buckeyes. The sooner you accept this, the less stuff you’ll break during the game.
Williams will again frustrate the Buckeyes with his feet, but the secondary he will be throwing against is much better than it was last season. Williams should throw an interception or two, and the Buckeyes will capitalize.
On offense, Ohio State will try to establish the run, but will eventually find that allowing Pryor to drop back and make plays works better.
Once Pryor is running around and spreading the field, the defense will have to spread out as well. This is when the Buckeyes will establish the running game and control the line of scrimmage.
Terrelle Pryor will throw for over 200 yards and a couple of touchdowns. He will also rush for around 70 yards, but lose a few of those yards due to sacks.
Chris Wells will be held to around 100 yards rushing, but the 25 carries he gets will have gone a long way in controlling the game. He will wear down the Illini front four in the in the second half and the Buckeyes will actually see the ball in the fourth quarter this year.
And when it is all over, the Buckeyes will walk out the victors and stand just one game away from repeating as Big Ten Champions.
Ohio State 23 - Illinois 16
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