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Football Ohio State vs. Iowa Preview By Tony Gerdeman |
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Saturday will mark the 62nd meeting between #10 Iowa (9-1) and #11 Ohio State (8-2).
The Buckeyes own the all-time series with a 44-14-3 record over the Hawkeyes.
Ohio State has won ten of the last eleven meetings with Iowa, losing just the 2004 match-up 33-7, which is still the darkest regular-season day in Jim Tressel’s tenure.
In Columbus, the Buckeyes have a 28-8-1 mark against the Hawkeyes and haven’t lost to Iowa at home since 1991.
Iowa is 213-311-23 all-time on the road, though they have won six straight conference road games.
Ohio State is 258-112-18 at home against Big Ten opposition and Jim Tressel is 23-7 when playing ranked opponents in Columbus.
The Buckeyes are 72-44-3 all-time in home finales.
When Iowa Has The Ball
Nothing has come easy for the Hawkeye offense this year and Saturday should be no exception. Losing starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi last week to a regular-season ending ankle injury is really only part of the problem for Iowa this week.
For the season, the Hawkeyes are only averaging 119.2 yards rushing per game, and right now their only real threat in the backfield is freshman Brandon Wegher. Wegher has had to step up the last two weeks because starting running back Adam Robinson was also lost for the season due to an ankle injury. Wegher has averaged 22 carries and 90.1 yards rushing per game since Robinson’s injury. He also scored three touchdowns in the Hawkeyes’ comeback win over Indiana a couple of weeks ago.
Wegher is a good back, and he has a talented offensive line blocking for him, but he’s still very young. He’s only averaging 3.8 yards per carry and has yet to show the next-level dynamics that should eventually turn him into a difference-maker.
The Ohio State defense is third in the nation in run defense, allowing just 85.4 yards rushing per game. If Iowa can reach their average, we could consider it a small miracle.
This will be the best defensive front the Hawkeyes have seen all year, but the Buckeyes can’t come in overconfident like they did against Purdue. They need to approach this game just like they did last week’s contest in Happy Valley. The winner of this game goes to the Rose Bowl--there should be no overlooking anything.
The Hawkeyes’ offensive success this week will be determined in large measure by how effectively the offensive line can negate defensive lineman Cameron Heyward. His versatility will allow each offensive lineman to get a crack at him, but never really allow them to gain a feel for him. Expect another impressive day from Heyward this week.
But the focus won’t really be on the running game or the offensive line, it is going to be on redshirt freshman quarterback James Vandenberg. When Stanzi was injured last week against Northwestern, Vandenberg was thrust into duty and proceeded to complete just 9 of his 27 passes for 82 yards, throwing an interception in the process.
It’s quite apparent that Vandenberg has never been a part of a game of this magnitude, nor has he ever faced a defense like the one that he will see on Saturday. The Buckeyes will be moving faster than the game in his head, and because of that he is going to throw some late passes. And when he does, the Ohio State defense HAS to come up with them.
In order to slow the defense down, and build some confidence in their young quarterback, the Hawkeyes will likely employ plenty of screen passes--and they won’t discriminate who gets thrown to.
Receivers Marvin McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos are the two biggest weapons on the team. They both have breakaway speed and strength enough to discard lackadaisical tacklers. McNutt’s size (6’4” 215) makes him a terrific target, but his versatility as a former high school quarterback might make him a prime candidate for some trickery come game day.
Cornerback Chimdi Chekwa has been outstanding this season and will likely match up with both of these receivers throughout the game on Saturday. Don’t expect him to get beat deep unless he gets caught watching the quarterback. However, McNutt and Johnson-Koulianos are both very capable of gaining position while the ball is in the air and winning battles in tight coverage.
Tight end Tony Moeaki is also a frequent target for the Hawkeyes, catching 23 passes this season--four of which have gone for touchdowns. Provided Vandenberg can get the ball to them, this will be the most dangerous group of receivers the Buckeyes have faced all year long.
One area where the Hawkeyes need to have an advantage on Saturday will be in the kicking game. Punter Ryan Donahue has a huge leg and one-fourth of his kicks have gone for 50 yards or more. The Hawkeyes’ coverage has also been fantastic, as they are allowing just 4.4 yards per return with a long of just 11 yards in 17 attempts. Last week, much of Penn State’s special teams doom came from out-kicking their punt coverage and allowing Ohio State punt returner Ray Small to get a running start. Iowa has been able to avoid such a fate so far this season, but the Buckeyes will definitely put them to the test on fourth downs.
Place-kicker Daniel Murray has been solid at times this season, making 10 of his 11 attempts inside 40 yards. However, he is just 5 of 10 attempts beyond 40 yards. He will need to make every kick he takes this week if the Hawkeyes want to leave Columbus with a win.
The other thing to keep in mind is that Iowa has blocked a couple of field goals as well as a punt this season. They get penetration quickly, though the Buckeyes have been very solid in this regard so far this season.
When Ohio State Has The Ball
The Buckeye offense will be facing one of the most consistent and persistent defenses in the nation on Saturday. The Hawkeyes have started the same front seven in every single game this season and they’ve been in control much of the way.
Currently, the Hawkeyes are allowing 118.7 yards rushing, which is only sixth-best in the conference, but they have a defensive line that has a knack for making timely plays in the backfield.
Though they only average two sacks per game, the Iowa defense leads the conference in pass efficiency defense. Their 19 interceptions leads the nation and seemingly every single defender on the field excels in pass defense. If a defensive lineman isn’t getting any penetration on a pass rush, they do a tremendous job of knocking passes down at the line of scrimmage (defensive end Broderick Binns leads the team in PBUs with eight). And when passes are batted into the air, more often than not, a Hawkeye defender will come down with the ball.
Buckeye quarterback Terrelle Pryor will be facing a mature, sound defense that won’t get rattled, nor will they generally stray from their assignments. Basically, Pryor should know exactly what he’s going to get from this defense.
If they don’t have to, Iowa won’t blitz all that often, choosing instead to keep the play in front of them and making the tackle. And with the way this defensive line has been attacking the line of scrimmage (36.5 tackles for loss and 19.5 sacks), they don’t always need more than four players coming after the quarterback anyway.
With the back seven staying behind the line of scrimmage, it should limit Terrelle Pryor’s running ability. And if he’s not quite fully healthy yet, he will be limited even more. Against a defense that defends the pass as well as this one does, Pryor’s escapability may be exactly what the Buckeyes need to gain an advantage in the passing game.
Over the last two weeks we’ve seen an increased focus on the short passing game by the Buckeyes and that should continue this week as well. The short passes will allow Ohio State to showcase their superior speed and athleticism in an attempt to get free yards down the sideline.
However, no matter where Terrelle Pryor is throwing the ball, he will want to keep the ball away from strong safety Tyler Sash, who can always be found near a wayward pass. His six interceptions lead the conference.
Wide receiver DeVier Posey has accounted for a touchdown in six straight games and leads the Big Ten in touchdown receptions (6) in conference play. Pryor to Posey is becoming a dynamic combination and we should look for it to continue to grow this weekend.
But this game will be more than just Terrelle Pryor throwing the ball against a disruptive front four and a waiting Tyler Sash. Iowa is also going to have to stop the Ohio State running game.
In conference games, the Buckeyes are averaging 184.8 yards rushing per game, which is second in the conference. Ohio State has been using a committee attack on the ground and that will continue this week as well. Don’t expect anybody to have more than 15 or 16 carries on Saturday.
This will probably be the healthiest the Ohio State offensive line has been all season. Tackles Mike Adams and J.B. Shugarts should be ready to go, which means there will be some rotation on the offensive line for the Buckeyes. Hopefully, this will be a positive for the Buckeyes and not cause an inability to find offensive consistency.
If the Buckeyes can get another productive week from Ray Small in the return game, a “W” may not be hard to find. With Iowa punter Ryan Donahue having such a big leg, it should allow Small to get some returns, but he’ll be doing it against a stout return unit. A concern would arise if Small is more focused on making big plays like last week, as opposed to simply making the smart play first. A muffed punt at some point probably shouldn’t be a surprise.
The Hawkeyes are equally as tough defending kickoff returns, so any yardage beyond the 25-yard line or so that the Buckeyes can manage should be considered a bonus.
Once again this week, place-kicker Devin Barclay is going to be a rather large story at some point in the game. He was only asked to kick a field goal once last week--which he did successfully. However, his inexperience led Jim Tressel to decide to punt from the Penn State 29-yard line last week. It will be interesting to see if the same cautious thinking is in place this time around.
How It Will End Up
The Hawkeyes have forced the second-most turnovers in the nation, but it has only led to a +.5 turnover ratio per game. Meaning, the offense turns it over almost as much as their opponents do. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, most of those turnovers came from quarterback Ricky Stanzi, who threw 14 interceptions on the season.
But we probably shouldn’t expect James Vandenberg to go unscathed in the turnover department this week. He’s too new and the deer in HIS headlights will probably be coming at him at about 100 miles per hour.
The Hawkeyes’ inability to throw the ball successfully will be compounded by the fact that the running game will be almost non-existent. The Buckeye defense leads the nation three-and-outs, forcing six per game. They should increase that average this week.
Iowa’s only relief will come from the fact that they won’t have to go solely to the passing game because the Buckeyes simply won’t be able to score enough to justify an all-out Hawkeye aerial assault.
But the Buckeyes will do what they need to do. They will stay safe and stay smart and let Iowa make the same mistakes they always make.
And when it’s all over, the Buckeyes will be victorious and headed to Pasadena for the first time since the 1996 season (though they will have to make a small stopover in Ann Arbor in order to celebrate a bit).
Ohio State 24 - Iowa 0
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