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Ohio State vs. Michigan Preview By Tony Gerdeman |
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On Saturday, the 106th edition of the greatest rivalry in sports will add yet another chapter to its glorious history.
#10 Ohio State (9-2) will face Michigan (5-6) with the simplest and truest of all football emotions on the line--pride. The Big Ten has already been decided. The spot in the Rose Bowl is set. There is no championship on the line on Saturday, and it doesn’t matter one bit.
Michigan leads the all-time series with a 57-42-6 mark and has won seven of their last ten against the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines also lead the series in games played in Michigan Stadium, with a 22-17-3 record.
Since 1951, however, the Buckeyes own the series with a 30-26-2 mark.
More recently, the Buckeyes have won five straight against Michigan and seven of eight. The winner of this game has also won the Big Ten in nine of the last twelve seasons.
In his tenure at Ohio State, Jim Tressel is 7-1 against the Wolverines and owns a 92-21 career record as the Buckeye head coach. His counterpart, Rich Rodriguez, has a career record of 68-41 and is 0-1 against Ohio State.
As a head coach, Rodriguez is 13-18 against ranked teams, though he is 9-8 at home.
Michigan is 1-5 in November under Rodriguez.
The Wolverines are 464-178-18 all-time in the Big Ten.
Ohio State is 197-78-10 in Big Ten road games, and 456-190-28 in Big Ten games overall. Their all-time conference winning percentage is the best of any Big Ten school.
Starting back in 1967, this will be the 43rd consecutive year the game is televised.
The series is tied at 20-20-2 since that point.
When Michigan Has The Ball
Generally, the Wolverine offense rises and falls on the shoulders of what running back Brandon Minor can bear. They average 100 yards more on the ground when he is healthy, and the word right now is that he is anything but healthy enough to carry a load against the Buckeyes this week.
But believe that bit of news at your own risk.
The Buckeyes fully expect Minor to play, but whether he will be able to make it the entire game is probably the real question. His shoulder is an issue now, and with the force with which he runs, even if he feels good in warm-ups, it’s doubtful he’ll be feeling good long into the second half.
With Minor’s situation up in the air, the Wolverines will have to rely more on the other backs, namely Carlos Brown, who quite timely returns from his own injuries. Brown provides the big-play ability that this offense needs against an Ohio State defense that is on pace to set a record for fewest points given up by the Buckeyes in the Jim Tressel era. However, Brown is far from the punishing back that Minor is--in fact, none of the running backs that will see the ball on Saturday bring the same type of strength and ability that Minor does. Which is all the more reason to expect Minor to play as much as his body will allow.
Overall, the Wolverines are averaging 195.8 yards rushing per game, which is second in the conference. Though in conference games, they are only averaging 125.9 yards rushing per game.
Against this Ohio State front seven, they will face a defense that is strong enough up front to get penetration and fast enough out wide to get to the edges. It has been four games since the Buckeyes have allowed 100 yards rushing to a team, and that’s a streak Ohio State is going to want to keep alive. It’s fairly apparent that the Wolverines are going to have to back the defense off of the line of scrimmage with the passing game, and if they can’t, then what little running game the Wolverines have will be diminished even more.
Rich Rodriguez has said he expects both of his quarterbacks to play this week, though the passing game will obviously come under freshman Tate Forcier’s watch. There is no doubt that Forcier is a playmaker, but many times, he waits too long for plays to emerge.
Forcier has a penchant for fumbling the ball, and when he does, the Buckeyes need to recover. They can’t allow Michigan to get away with any mistakes. The longer the Wolverines feel that they are in this game, the longer they will be.
Forcier is a terrific passer on the move, so expect him to roll out most of the game. The constant movement of the pocket may eliminate one side of the field, but it will keep the play going long enough for receivers to find some openings.
Whenever back-up quarterback Denard Robinson comes into the game, he will be expected to run--because that’s what he’s always done. But this week is a bit different than all of the other weeks. There is nothing to hold back this week. Don’t be surprised if we see a few passes from Robinson on Saturday, though mostly of the safe variety.
The Buckeyes will initially come out and see if the front four alone can provide adequate pass rush to keep Forcier (and sometimes Robinson) busy; and if it is, it’s going to make Michigan’s short passing game much less effective than it would be in the face of vacated blitz areas.
Recently, the Wolverines have taken to employing swing passes and wheel routes, which keep linebackers who may be crashing down on the running game off balance. Linebackers have trouble regrouping quick enough to get to the edge in coverage, leading to sizable gains. Obviously, the safeties will have an eye towards the line of scrimmage due to the short passing game, which means cornerbacks Chimdi Chekwa and Devon Torrence can’t allow themselves to get bested like they did last week against Iowa.
It would not be a surprise to see the Buckeyes go to a largely nickel defense and employ three safeties against Michigan’s spread offense. And due to the Wolverines’ running style and possible lack of a power game, a nickel defense should be okay--especially considering what they’ll be working with up front.
However, it must be mentioned--Purdue and Iowa both had success against this front four, so it can be done. But the Michigan offensive line will need to play their best game to match either of Purdue or Iowa’s output. The right side of the Wolverine offensive line is a weak spot, and if there are issues there, it could cause the entire offensive line to collapse.
One area where Michigan can absolutely not afford any mistakes is on the special teams. There are going to be issues on offense and defense, but the special teams has to be as close to perfect as possible for Michigan this week. And they are very capable of excelling. Punter Zoltan Mesko averages a whopping 44.7 yards per punt, and one-third of his punts have been for 50 yards or better. Despite such deep punting, the Wolverines are only giving up 5.7 yards per punt return. Their entire punting game has been stellar this season.
One large area of concern would be Michigan’s abilities in the kick return game. Darryl Stonum is averaging 26.1 yards per return and has a 94-yard touchdown to his credit. He gets a bit wild in his returns, but is very fast and has a knack for bouncing off of tacklers. Given the kickoff return touchdown that the Buckeyes gave up last week, they cannot take Stonum and Michigan’s return game lightly.
When Ohio State Has The Ball
Jim Tressel has come out and proclaimed quarterback Terrelle Pryor to be 100% healthy this week. And just like Brandon Minor being doubtful this week, don’t believe everything coaches tell you during Ohio State - Michigan Week.
Pryor is clearly not 100% and that’s readily apparent when he’s running the ball. He isn’t getting to the edge as easily as he normally does--though he does still get there. Terrelle Pryor running the ball at 80% is better than most quarterbacks running it at 160%.
And it appears his various ails have made him a better passer (14-17 last week against Iowa) and also a more careful one. Against Michigan, care is always preferred, but against this secondary, it would be more than okay to let a few loose.
Right now, Michigan just doesn’t have the talent to contain a legitimate passing game. The cornerbacks are fine, both Donovan Warren and Troy Woolfolk are quality players. Though Warren tends to play off of his man quite a bit, which should allow the Buckeyes to continue the short passing game that has gained steam of late.
Where Michigan can truly be exploited in the passing game is at safety and linebacker. Jordan Kovacs, a walk-on safety, will likely be playing the deep safety this week, and while he has a nose for the football in the running game, the further he gets from the line of scrimmage, the more damaging he becomes to the Wolverine pass defense. He doesn’t have the speed to play catch-up, yet he’s often caught looking in the backfield when he should be back-pedaling.
Michigan’s strong safety is usually playing up at the line of scrimmage, meaning there really isn’t much help back deep. The job of the strong safety (Mike Williams or Brandon Smith) is to blitz or attack from the backside and keep gains to a minimum. There will also be times when they are in coverage, and as is the case with Kovacs, coverage with either Williams or Smith is not their strong suit. Because they start out at the line of scrimmage so often, they are automatically chasing their man from the snap of the ball. They have trouble keeping plays in front of them and even when plays are coming right at them, they have breakdowns in fundamentals and can take themselves out of plays just as easily as they put themselves in them.
The linebackers are also an issue. Four of the five regular linebackers for the Wolverines have been benched this year, and the only reason Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton are back in the starting lineup is because there is nobody left to turn to. They are the most experienced linebackers on the team, but it rarely shows up between the whistles.
The single biggest factor in stopping the Ohio State passing game is going to be defensive end Brandon Graham. It has been said many times, but he is the most disruptive defensive player in the conference. He is going to get to Terrelle Pryor and he will likely cause a fumble or two. We all saw the trouble Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan caused. He nearly beat the Buckeyes single-handedly. Graham is capable of even more than Kerrigan. He is the one guy that can wreak havoc on this Ohio State offense, and if the Buckeyes don’t give him their undivided attention, he will go out and take it.
But the Wolverines have more to worry about than just the Buckeye passing game, obviously. Ohio State has rushed for 200 or more yards in seven games this year, which is tied for the most in the Jim Tressel era. They have done it four straight games and in five of their seven Big Ten contests.
Michigan is dead last in rushing defense is Big Ten games, allowing 196.6 yards rushing per game. They will come out with serious intentions of stopping the Buckeye rushing attack and don’t be surprised if they have early success like they did last week against Wisconsin.
Ohio State will likely lose the battle of field position this weekend given the Wolverine punting advantage. Punter Jon Thoma will need to avoid any shanks this weekend, because Michigan will likely need every bit of charity the Buckeyes are willing to give them. Thoma and the Buckeyes also need to be aware that the Wolverines have blocked a few punts and have come close to a few more than that. These are opportunities for free points for Michigan, so expect them to come after every kick they can.
After last week’s Rose Bowl-clinching field goal, you would have to assume place-kicker Devin Barclay is a little bit more relaxed than normal. But given that this is the Michigan Game, the nerves will be right back where they were before Iowa ever even came into the picture.
If the Buckeyes can turn the field thanks to a quality return game, it would go a long way towards negating Michigan’s only advantage in this game.
How It’ll End Up
The Buckeyes will come out throwing and trying to test this battered Michigan secondary. And in response, the Wolverines will likely come after Terrelle Pryor with everything they have. It’s clear that something big will happen early on, be it a touchdown drive by the Buckeyes or a forced turnover by the Wolverines.
And don’t be surprised when Michigan plays well throughout the first half--it’s what they do. Even last year’s game was 14-7 at the half before the Buckeyes broke off for the 42-7 win.
The question will be whether the emotion and importance of this game can carry Michigan through their second-half failures, or will the weight of it all simply be too much.
The second half is where the tightened screws get stripped and where the pressure leads to cracks.
The Buckeyes are coming off of an overtime victory that saw Iowa enter the extra session with all of the momentum pushing them forward. The Wolverines are coming off of a loss at Wisconsin that saw them outscored 24-7 in the second half.
If momentum were inevitability, this score would already be written.
But Saturday is an entirely new game. Everything that happened before only has importance as fodder. The fact that in Ohio State’s five-game winning streak over the Wolverines they have outrushed Michigan by an average of 194-72 doesn’t really factor in. And so what if Michigan has only managed to rush for 100 yards in two of those five match-ups. That is all irrelevant right now.
What is relevant, however, is the talent on the field, the talent on the sidelines, and the understanding of exactly what this game means.
And the advantage in each of those areas--as it has been since 2001--is with the Ohio State Buckeyes. And that’s exactly how it’s going to be for a very long time.
Ohio State 34 - Michigan 17
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