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Football Ohio State vs. Minnesota Preview By Tony Gerdeman |
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#19 Ohio State (5-2) and Minnesota (4-3) will meet for just the 49th time in the two schools’ history.
The Buckeyes have controlled the series with a 41-7 mark. The Gophers have only managed two wins over Ohio State in the last 43 years and only one in the last 23 meetings.
The Buckeyes are 21-3 at home against Minnesota all-time.
The Gophers have trailed in every single game this season, including all four of their wins. Three of which actually saw Minnesota trailing in the fourth quarter. The only win in which they didn’t trail in the fourth quarter was against Purdue, where the Gophers led 35-13 to start the final period.
Speaking of Purdue, Ohio State is coming off of a loss to the Boilermakers last week and in Jim Tressel’s career at Ohio State, his teams are 18-2 following a loss. In fact, a three-game losing streak in 2004 is the only time Tressel’s Buckeyes have ever experienced back-to-back losses.
This is Homecoming Week for Ohio State and the Buckeyes are 63-19-5 all-time in Homecoming Games.
When Minnesota Has The Ball
As Gopher Head Coach Tim Brewster promised the “SpreadCoast offense” has been scrapped in favor of an offense that was intended to be able to employ a power running game. It was a nice thought at the time, but it hasn’t yet emerged as Brewster had hoped.
Currently, Minnesota owns the 105th-ranked rushing offense averaging just 103.4 yards per game on the ground. Carries are being split three ways between tailbacks Duane Bennett, DeLeon Eskridge and Kevin Whaley. Nobody has stepped up to demand the bulk of the carries and it’s clear that Tim Brewster was hoping somebody would.
The three tailbacks are averaging just 4.5 yards per carry and it doesn’t seem likely they will be able to improve that number against an Ohio State run defense that is ranked ninth in the nation allowing just 89.9 yards per game on the ground.
All three of the running backs possess superb quickness, but the offensive line just isn’t opening enough holes in Brewster’s new offense. Expect Minnesota to try and get the tailbacks involved in the passing game in an effort to get them the ball away from the Buckeye front four.
For the Buckeyes defense, the most interesting aspect of the Gopher running game will come in the form of freshman quarterback MarQueis Gray, who runs the Wildcat offense for a handful of snaps every game. The Minnesota coaching staff has referred to him as “Vince Young II”, and it’s not in reference to the Wonderlic Test. He is fourth on the team in rushing but has carried the ball just ten times for 55 yards. He has only thrown one pass to, so anything more than a token pass or two from Gray in this one would be a definite surprise.
The true passing threat is quarterback Adam Weber. This is Weber’s third season as Minnesota’s starting quarterback and he seems to be regressing. He currently possesses the worst quarterback rating of his career (115.32) and has only thrown six touchdowns to nine interceptions on the season.
Weber was only 5-9 for 74 yards with two interceptions against Purdue, and yet the Gophers still found a way to win 35-20. In past seasons, Weber’s running would mask his iffy decisions in the passing game. But now that Weber is strictly a drop-back passer, his flaws are emerging more often. His nine interceptions are one more than he had all last season, and the most since he threw 19 as a freshman.
The passing game woes can’t all be put on Weber, however. He’s getting sacked more than twice per game, and it would be even worse if not for his escapability. The Gophers have the 88th-ranked passing offense in the country, and if not for receiver Eric Decker, they would probably be dead last.
Decker’s 104 receiving yards per game leads the Big Ten and his 47 receptions are fourth-best in the conference. Weber will throw the ball to him anywhere on the field, and no matter how many defenders are around Decker, he’s always the favorite to come down itl. He is strong enough to fend off cornerbacks and fast enough to get behind safeties. And he has the best hands in the conference. Basically, the Buckeye secondary will want to keep a couple sets of eyes on Decker all game long.
Ohio State cornerback Chimdi Chekwa has been the Buckeyes’ best coverage option all season long and it is going to be interesting to watch the battle when he and Decker are facing off. Cornerback Devon Torrence had a bit of a rough week last week against Purdue, and this isn’t exactly the type of test where you get your confidence back. It is going to take a team effort to stop Decker.
The return game for the Gophers has become quite a weapon. They don’t have any touchdowns yet, but the kickoff return team has put Minnesota in quality field position. They are second in the conference, averaging 25.8 yards per kickoff return. Troy Stoudermire is third individually in the Big Ten, averaging 26.6 yards per return. Buckeye place-kicker Aaron Pettrey hasn’t put many kicks into the endzone this season, but he might want to try a little bit harder this week.
The Gophers are also averaging 19.0 yards per punt return, but they’ve only returned three punts on the season and they probably don’t expect to get too many this week against a Buckeye punt defense that has allowed only three punt returns for 15 yards this year.
Place-kicker Eric Ellestad has been very good, making all 19 of his extra points and seven of his eight field goal attempts. He hasn’t missed a kick since the first week.
Punter Blake Haudan is fourth in the Big Ten in punting, averaging 42.8 yards per punt. Last week at Penn State, five of his six punts at Penn State went for 50 yards or more.
When Ohio State Has The Ball
Much has been made of quarterback Terrelle Pryor’s struggles, and for good reason. He has thrown at least one interception in every game--save for the Illinois game, and he only threw 13 passes in that one.
Only once this season (the Toledo game) has he been able to match or exceed his average passer rating (146.50) from last season. However, in four of the Buckeyes’ seven games this season, he has completed over 60 percent of his passes. But this is something he needs to do every week. An offense can’t get consistent with a inconsistent quarterback.
Pryor’s recent troubles can’t just be pinned on him, though. In the Buckeyes’ first four games, Pryor was sacked only twice. In the last three games, he’s been sacked ten times and has rarely had time to actually drop back and read a defense. As foreign a concept as it may seem, this offensive line needs to give Pryor time to throw the ball. Lately, he hasn’t even had time to duck and cover. In fact, he’s barely managing to duck.
Having the 101st-ranked passing offense (174 passing yards per game) is never going to scare a defense, but given that the Gophers have the 92nd-ranked defense in the nation, they can’t afford to take any aspect of an opposing offense lightly. This secondary has only produced two interceptions and if Pryor can remain accurate, the Buckeye receivers will be able to get open against these defensive backs.
Receiver DeVier Posey has caught touchdowns in three straight games, but Pryor cannot afford to continue locking in on him. Against Purdue, receiver Dane Sanzenbacher was frequently seen running free while Pryor waited for Posey to get open. Obviously, this is something that the coaches have made known to Pryor and we can probably expect Sanzenbacher to outdo the one reception he’s had over the last two weeks.
Clearly, the Minnesota defense is intent on making the Buckeyes throw the ball and until they can, this will be the plan of attack for all of Ohio State’s opponents. The Gophers are going to stack the line of scrimmage and attack Pryor from all angles, and it’s up to him to capitalize on Minnesota’s brazen attack.
There are no sack machines on this Gopher defense, but they do get a good push from their interior line, most notably defensive tackle Eric Small, who leads the team in sacks with three.
Regardless of the number of defenders at the line of scrimmage, the Buckeyes are still going to try and run the ball. And when they do, it will be running back Brandon Saine getting the bulk of the carries. He only touched the ball eight times last week, but averaged nine yards per touch. The coaches have to get him more involved this week and can’t forget about him like they did last week.
We will likely see more speed option from the Buckeyes, but you can bet that Pryor has had “avoid the bad pitch” drilled into his head repeatedly.
Last year against these Gophers, Pryor carried the ball eight times for 97 yards, scoring twice. It was part of a 279-yard day on the ground for the Buckeyes. It’s that type of running game that demoralizes a defense and allows an offense to do whatever they want. Of course, that type of running game is much easier when Beanie Wells is around.
Getting a good start in the passing game will allow the running game to carry the Buckeyes down the stretch. But if they can’t move the ball through the air early on, Ohio State is going to be looking at another sixty-minute ulcer fest.
The punt return game is still non-existent and now with Ray Small’s yips returning, all the coaches are hoping for here is just to have the punt caught cleanly. And even though Small has a kickoff return for a touchdown, that has pretty much been the only substantial return that didn’t come because of a fake end around.
Punter Jon Thoma has yet to display a field-position changing leg. Instead he excels at pinning teams inside their own 15-yard line from 40 yards away. A great game from Thoma could go a long way towards a Buckeye victory.
How It’ll End Up
The Gopher defense is going to load up the box and dare Pryor to attack their secondary. If the rain stays away, expect to see Pryor connecting with Sanzenbacher on some intermediate routes.
Some quick passes out wide will also begin to spread out a crowded defense.
With the defense successfully softened, Jim Tressel can then begin shortening the game with Brandon Saine.
This all assumes the Buckeyes aren’t turning the ball over every other possession.
The Ohio State defense will eliminate Minnesota’s running game and the only real running being done by any of the Gophers will be by Adam Weber as he is being chased from behind by an angry front four.
The Buckeyes couldn’t get to Joey Elliott last week because of Purdue’s quick passing attack and surprisingly stout offensive line. The Ohio State coaches and players won’t come in as overconfident this week, and they will plan on attacking Adam Weber with more than just the front four (or front two).
And it will lead to several Gopher turnovers.
The Silver Bullets should enjoy going against this type of offense because it actually suits them better.
(But then straitjackets can suit people too.)
In the end, this will be a complete team effort by the Buckeyes and every side of the ball will have contributed.
It’s just too bad some “fans” chose to boo Pryor after his first incompletion. And second. And third. And so forth…
Ohio State 27 - Minnesota 6
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