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Football Ohio State vs. New Mexico State Preview By Tony Gerdeman |
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New Mexico State (3-5) and #17 Ohio State (6-2) will meet for the first time ever this Saturday.
The Buckeyes are 9-2 against the WAC all time--though due to teams leaving the conference, they are now 3-0 versus teams currently in the WAC.
New Mexico State is 0-2 against the Big Ten in their history, losing both games by a combined score of 111-13.
Buckeye Head Coach Jim Tressel is 13-1 in his Ohio State career against coaches in their first season at a school. His only loss came at the hands of Purdue’s Danny Hope just two weeks ago.
Ohio State is 24-2 in Ohio Stadium against non-conference opponents.
The last time the Buckeyes lost to an opponent that is not currently in a BCS conference was in the 1990 Liberty Bowl when Air Force beat Ohio State 23-11.
When New Mexico State Has The Ball
When the Aggies have the ball, they likely won’t have it for very long. Despite running multiple styles of offense--or maybe because of it--New Mexico State comes into this game with the worst offense (120th) in the nation, averaging just 254 yards of total offense per game. They also have the 117th-best passing offense, averaging 104 yards passing per game. The only teams who pass for fewer yards than New Mexico State (Navy, Air Force and Army) do it on purpose. The Aggies would like to throw for more yards, but they just can’t. And facing the Buckeyes isn’t exactly a way to bust your team out of an offensive slump.
New Mexico State has been working with a two-quarterback system as they look for anybody that can actually make the offense go. Currently they have been starting redshirt freshman quarterback Trevor Walls, who is from Waverly, Ohio. Last week against Fresno State, Walls completed four passes for a total of -1 yards. His long completion on the day went six feet.
The second quarterback in the picture is sophomore Jeff Fleming. Fleming provides more of a running threat and has a carry of at least 26 yards in each of the last two games. But that’s about the biggest positive that can be found. Combined, the two quarterbacks have thrown just four touchdowns to eleven interceptions this season.
The Aggie quarterbacks have been sacked twelve times on the season, and it would be even worse if not for a short, quick passing game. Ideally, the New Mexico State receivers would make the first tackler miss and then get up field. However, this season, nobody’s missing tackles against the Aggies.
The Ohio State cornerbacks will be the first line of defense on many of these wide screen passes, and don’t be surprised to see a few middle screens as the Aggies try to counter the aggression of the front four.
The interior of the New Mexico State offensive line has fared pretty well this season, relatively speaking of course. Starting center Mike Grady and starting left guard Joe Palmer have yet to give up any sacks on the season. However, being that they’re not really facing any defensive ends, this stat is somewhat loaded. But it also says that the offensive tackles on this team have had some serious issues in pass protection. Expect that to continue against the likes of defensive ends Thaddeus Gibson, Cameron Heyward and Nathan Williams. In fact, given that this game should no longer be competitive in the second half, we will probably get some decent looks at various reserve defensive linemen--and don’t be surprised when they perform solidly as well.
The Aggie running game is in much better shape than the passing game, coming in as the 56th-best rushing offense in the nation, averaging 150 yards on the ground per game. The main contributor in the running game is junior running back Seth Smith. Smith has rushed for 703 yards this season, including six games of at least 89 yards. Last week against Fresno State, he rushed for 105 yards on 19 carries (though that did include a 70-yard jaunt.)
Obviously, Smith has the ability to make a big play, though he hasn’t shown it as much as the coaching staff would have liked to this point. Don’t expect him to have much success running against the Buckeye defense, which ranks tenth in the nation, allowing just 92 yards rushing per game.
The New Mexico State special teams are much more sound than the offense is, but again, how can they not be. Sophomore Kyle Hughes handles both the punting and the place-kicking duties. He is only 6-11 on field goals--and is just 2-6 from 40 yards and beyond. Hughes is a solid punter, however, averaging 42.6 yards per punt, though sometimes he out-kicks his coverage, which is one of the reasons the Aggies are allowing 14.5 yards per punt return.
Marcus Anderson is the team’s leading punt returner, averaging 12.4 yards per return with a long of 56 yards. Tonny Glynn is the leading kickoff returner, though he is averaging just 22 yards per return on 29 attempts. The Buckeyes have been superb in return coverage this season, and they’ll probably get plenty of practice in both areas on Saturday.
When Ohio State Has The Ball
The Buckeyes will likely come out throwing the ball as they try to get quarterback Terrelle Pryor as much work as possible before sitting him for a good portion of the second half.
Last week the Buckeyes afforded him time to throw by rolling the pocket out more, and Pryor was effective in that role. It probably won’t be as necessary this week against the New Mexico State pass rush, but it wouldn’t hurt to continue getting Pryor comfortable in such situations.
The two key players to watch on the Aggie side of the ball will be defensive ends Pierre Fils (6’3” 230) and Donte Savage (6‘1“ 229). Though they aren’t big, they provide the speed that could give the Ohio State offensive tackles a few issues. And since there looks to be quite a bit of rotating at tackle for the Buckeyes again, Fils and Savage may be able to make some noise as those doing the rotating look to get a feel for these two speed rushers. Between the two of them, they have 12.5 tackles for loss and ten sacks. They are pretty much the only consistent defenders who are able to find themselves in the opponents’ backfield, so if the Buckeyes can neutralize them, Pryor should have plenty of time to throw the ball.
With time to throw, we probably shouldn’t expect Pryor to lock in on receiver DeVier Posey as much as he has lately. Although, with how open Posey has gotten, it’s hard to blame the quarterback for waiting on the inevitable. Over the last two games, Posey has caught 17 passes for 248 yards and three touchdowns. He has touchdowns in four straight games. If his streak doesn’t continue to five after Saturday, consider it an upset.
This game would also be a good opportunity for Pryor to continue reacquainting himself with receiver Dane Sanzenbacher. After catching just one pass over the previous two games, Sanzenbacher responded with three catches for 62 yards last week. Similar numbers are probably on order this time around as well.
Though the Buckeyes will likely be looking to throw the ball around early, that doesn’t mean the running game is going to be abandoned. With running back Brandon Saine getting cleared to play this week after a bout with a concussion, the coaches will want to get him some time early when the game is still young.
Starting left guard Justin Boren is out, so the Buckeyes will go with Andrew Moses in his spot. Boren is the team’s best run blocker, so it will be interesting to see how this affects the running game.
Last week, freshmen tailbacks Jordan Hall and Jermil Martin both performed well, combining for 17 carries and 113 yards rushing with two touchdowns. They will likely handle most of the carries in the second half and again try to impress the coaches enough to earn even more touches as the season winds down.
A surprisingly dismal punt return game for the Buckeyes could get quite a shot in the arm this week. The Aggies are giving up 14.5 yards per return and have already allowed an 88-yard touchdown on the season. Their kickoff return team is much better, allowing just 20.2 yards per return with a long of 33 yards.
Punter Jon Thoma and the punt coverage unit have been effective in negating any impact from opposing punt returners. The Buckeyes still have only allowed three total punt returns for 15 yards on the season. Much of this is due to the coverage, but the fact that Thoma only has three punts on the season over 50 yards is another, less desirable, reason for the stellar coverage so far this season.
How It’ll End Up
The Buckeyes will probably come out fairly tight on offense as they know they are supposed to walk all over this New Mexico State defense. The Aggies have a feisty defense, so don’t be surprised when they put up a first-quarter fight.
Eventually, the offense will calm down--most likely due to repeated field position wins thanks to the defense and special teams.
Pryor will throw for 180 yards in the first half, but only finish with around 230 yards for the game.
The Ohio State defense will stifle an easily stifleable Aggie offense and force numerous turnovers. Though, regrettably, some of them may not be returned for touchdowns.
The Buckeye offense, defense and special teams will ALL outscore New Mexico State in this one. And the first points the Buckeyes get will be more than enough to secure the win.
Ohio State 41 - New Mexico State 0
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