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Football Ohio State vs. Penn State Preview By Tony Gerdeman |
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On Saturday, #16 Ohio State (7-2) and #11 Penn State (8-1) will play in the 300th game in the 50-year history of Beaver Stadium.
This will be the 25th meeting between the two schools and the series is currently even at twelve wins per team. The Buckeyes have outscored Penn State 438-436 over the previous 24 games.
However, since the Nittany Lions have joined the Big Ten, the Buckeyes own the 10-6 advantage.
Penn State Head Coach Joe Paterno is 8-12 in his career against the Buckeyes, and Jim Tressel is 5-3 against the Nittany Lions.
Penn State is 32-3 over their last 35 home games. And the last time the Buckeyes came to Happy Valley, they left with a 37-17 victory in 2007. The Nittany Lions have already lost one home game this season and haven’t dropped two homes in a season since 2004.
The higher-ranked team has won 17 of the last 18 meetings between the two schools.
Ohio State is 26-8 in conference road games during Jim Tressel’s tenure and 12-6 when traveling to play ranked opponents.
In Beaver Stadium, Penn State is 5-3 against the Buckeyes since joining the Big Ten.
When Penn State Has The Ball
Don’t expect the Nittany Lions to come out throwing the ball all over the place. Much like the Buckeyes, Penn State’s number one goal is going to be safety. They will still have to take shots downfield to back the defense off, but they will pick their opportunities.
Their first mode of attack will be getting the ball to running back Evan Royster in a variety of positions and situations. He is a very effective receiver who will also line up in the slot and either be a target for a bubble screen, or a difficult matchup for a safety or linebacker who is trying to keep him from running a slant or a post.
Obviously, however, Royster will be most utilized carrying the ball. In his career, Pen State is 11-0 when he has rushed for at least 100 yards in a game. If the Buckeye defense can keep that number down, they will have a shot in this one.
Royster has rushed for 100 yards in three straight games, but in his last two his numbers have been buoyed by a 41-yard run against Michigan and a 69-yard run against Northwestern. Aside from those two runs, he is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry over the last two weeks, which is about where he was to start the season. Penn State’s running game struggled early on, and it may be headed that way again if they can’t find more consistency. Against an Ohio State front seven that will be the best the Nittany Lions have seen this year, we probably shouldn‘t expect a breakout performance.
Defensive tackle Dexter Larimore returns this week, which means the Buckeyes are deeper and stronger than they have been all year. The young players are experienced and the veterans are fresh because of the constant rotation. The Penn State offensive line is going to have to step up in a big way to keep quarterback Darryl Clark clean and healthy.
The Nittany Lions have allowed the fewest sacks in the conference, giving up just ten sacks so far through their first nine games. Against Iowa and Michigan, however, they gave up two sacks in each of those games. It’s no coincidence that those two teams possess some of the best pass-rushing defensive ends in the conference. Against the Buckeyes on Saturday, offensive tackles Dennis Landolt and Ako Poti will face constant pressure from defensive ends Thaddeus Gibson, Cameron Heyward and Nathan Williams. Poti has struggled at various times this year, and he may be a frequently-targeted area of attack by this Ohio State defense.
If the Ohio State front four can control the line of scrimmage, it will allow the back seven to constantly change their looks in an effort to slow down Darryl Clark’s decision-making. Clark has played extremely well since the loss to Iowa, throwing nine touchdowns to just one interception. However, the best defense that he has seen in that timeframe is Northwestern. The Buckeyes are a different animal and it will be interesting to see if Clark is a little bit caught off guard by the speed and strength, since the Nittany Lions won’t be accustomed to it given who they’ve been playing lately.
When Clark does have time to throw, he’ll have a few different weapons to throw to. Much like the last few years, there is a three-headed attack at receiver for the Nittany Lions. This year Derek Moye, Chaz Powell and Graham Zug are leading the charge, having combined for 95 receptions, 1,353 yards and 13 touchdowns. Moye is a chain-mover and with his frame (6’5” 195), he can block out the smaller defensive backs who shadow him. Graham Zug got behind the Buckeye defense last year for a 49-yard catch, but his long reception this year is just 24 yards. He did have three touchdowns this year against Michigan, however, but two of them were against Stevie Brown, so that doesn’t really mean much. Chaz Powell is the big-play guy and they like to move him around and even get him involved in the running game. He can go the distance from anywhere and if a safety gets matched up against him, they will need to be on point, or else he could score at any time. Tight end Andrew Quarless may be the biggest concern of the entire receiving corps. He can get vertical and Clark will look for him down field.
However, the Ohio State defensive backs match up well with these receivers and should not be overwhelmed by the speed or athleticism they see. Darryl Clark is going to have to be precise in order to sneak the football in where it needs to go. And that precision wanes as the pass rush increases. It’s already going to be hard enough to hit open receivers just based on the coverage, and the Nittany Lion offensive line can’t afford to let their quarterback lose sight of his targets by worrying about who’s targeting him.
Clark isn’t running as much this year as he did last, but this game may be an exception. Both teams are going to focus on moving the chains and sometimes the easiest way to do that is going to be for the quarterbacks to take off running. However, Clark got knocked out of the game last year and you have to wonder if that’s still in the back of his mind.
Again, much like Ohio State this season, there isn’t too much special about the Nittany Lions special teams. Place-kicker Collin Wagner is 10-14 kicking field goals this year, but just 1-4 from beyond 40 yards. Senior Jeremy Boone is once again having a solid season punting the ball, but Penn State did allow Iowa to block a punt and return it 53 yards for a touchdown.
And despite several playmakers on this team, the return game has yet to pay any dividends. The longest punt return this season is 20 yards and given that the Buckeyes have only allowed two punt returns for 12 yards in Big Ten play this year, you would expect this area of the game to continue to be quiet for both teams.
When Ohio State Has The Ball
It seems that everybody already knows that turnovers are going to either win this game or lose it for somebody. Above any other game this season, the Ohio State goal this weekend will be to end each possession with a kick, be it a punt, a field goal or an extra point.
Quarterback Terrelle Pryor came out of the womb fighting for extra yards. Legend has it that it actually took the doctor three attempts to finally catch him and slap him on the butt after he was born. This week, however, extra yards aren’t all they’re cracked up to be. Smart yards are much more valuable than extra yards.
Penn State has the nation’s best scoring defense, allowing just 9.33 points. Although in conference play, that number jumps to 12.2 points per game, which is just behind Ohio State’s 12.0. The Buckeyes own the top scoring offense in conference play, averaging 30.0 points per game. If the Buckeyes can reach their scoring average, they should be able to move to 54-0 when scoring 30 or more points under Jim Tressel.
But this Buckeye offense scoring 30 points against the Nittany Lions might be more than just a tad optimistic.
There is success to be had against this defense, however. Northwestern was very effective running the zone read last week. Quarterbacks Mike Kafka and Dan Persa combined to rush for 84 yards on 22 carries. However, they tend to keep the ball inside the hash marks and run more north-south than east-west. Buckeye quarterback Terrelle Pryor tends to want to take things to the sideline, but that’s not where the yards are going to be against this defense. Outside linebackers Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman can chase down anybody, so it’s best to just go right at them when there are blockers available to get in their way.
Last year in this game, Terrelle Pryor fumbled the ball away trying to do too much. This week, he needs to take what the defense gives him--and if he’s okay with turning the ball upfield quickly, the defense may end up giving him quite a bit.
Ohio State’s running game should be as healthy as it has been in a while, but at this point in the season, no stable is 100%. It is going to be tough for the Buckeyes to mount a consistent running game while they’re still trying to figure out who their best option for success is. It may take two or three quarters to get it figured out, but when they do, this offensive line needs to feed off of any momentum they can find and try to dictate the situation at the point of attack.
Penn State isn’t usually pushed around, but Iowa did a very good job of it in their upset, rushing for 163 yards. They alternated running backs and changed paces, but when somebody was starting to take control, they fed them the ball until the magic wore off. If the Buckeyes are finding any fortune on offense, they need to exploit it until it is gone. If they find a golden goose, they need to throttle it.
The Nittany Lions are second in conference play (behind the Buckeyes), averaging 3.4 sacks per game. The Ohio State offensive line has had their issues this season due to injuries and various whatnots, but if there is any game this season in which they need to step up and give all they have in order to provide Terrelle Pryor an extra tick or two, this is it.
Despite shaky individual play in the Penn State secondary, they lead the conference in pass efficiency defense and have only allowed one touchdown pass in conference play. Their stellar marks in efficiency doesn’t mean that the Buckeyes are going to avoid throwing the ball, however. As the weeks have gone on, receiver DeVier Posey continues to emerge and put up numbers comparable to many of the top sophomore receivers in Buckeye history. He is Terrelle Pryor’s favorite target and it’s no secret. Posey’s place in Pryor’s eyes certainly won’t be lost on Penn State, who will look to jump anything headed his way.
Northwestern had tremendous success with the short, quick passing game last week against Penn State and we also saw quite a bit of it from the Buckeyes against New Mexico State. Expect to see more of it this week because it’s essentially an extended handoff and with a running game that may never fully emerge this week, the Buckeyes will need to move the chains any way they can.
If this doesn’t become a game that turns on a mistake or a turnover, it will likely be a game of field position. And with Ohio State’s punting situation, the Nittany Lions may eventually get the field turned in their favor, leading to a short drive and score at some point in the game. Jon Thoma is currently ninth in conference play, averaging just 37.5 yards per punt. In a game that can turn on a single shanked kick--or a bomb that pins an offense inside their own five-yard line, it is very important the punting game is above average this weekend.
The biggest issue on the special teams, however, was last week’s loss of place-kicker Aaron Pettrey due to a straight on knee-shot from a New Mexico State player. In his place, junior Devin Barclay stepped in and made just one of three field goals, though he did make all three of his extra point attempts. He showed a powerful leg on kickoffs, but it will be interesting to see how often Jim Tressel chooses to play for a long field goal, rather than trying to stretch a bit and shoot for a touchdown. The coaches will be stressing to their players all week not to overextend themselves, but this situation with the place-kicking could put the staff in a position to ask the offense to do more than they would normally have to.
How It Will End Up
For Ohio State, this game will come down to four drives: their first; their last of the first half; their first of the second half and their last drive of the game. If they can score on three of these drives, they will win the game.
An opening score would allow the Buckeyes to play from ahead--or at least not from behind. The final drives of each half would likely be in a two-minute type of drill, and we’ve seen the success that Pryor can have when things are being hurried. The first possession of the third quarter would show that proper adjustments had been made and the coaches were up to speed on where success can be found against this Penn State defense.
However, it’s every other possession as well that Buckeye fans also need to be concerned with.
Penn State can force turnovers and they will focus on doing so. They will be ripping and tearing at Terrelle Pryor every chance they get.
And let’s not forget about the crowd. It will be a factor--though the Buckeyes could play in an empty stadium and still fall victim to three false starts per game.
If you’re looking for a shootout here, you must be joking.
This game is going to be tight all the way through. It will be loud and raucous and once the game gets started, the first half will fly by.
Throughout, however, you’ll begin to notice that Penn State isn’t running the ball as well as they’d like. Short gains on first down will lead to second and third and long for most of the game. That’s not a formula for success against a Buckeye defense that can rush the passer and is always looking to make a play.
In the end, however, there just isn’t a lot these two quarterbacks can do against these defenses. It’s going to come down to the four possessions mentioned above--and the Buckeyes are going to bat .500, which just might be good enough.
Ohio State 17 - Penn State 16
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