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Purdue vs. Ohio State Preview By Tony Gerdeman |
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The 52nd meeting between #7 Ohio State (5-1) and Purdue (1-5) will take place on Saturday, but it will be just the 19th game played in West Lafayette between the two schools.
Ohio State owns the all-time mark against the Boilermakers with a 37-12-2 record, including a 12-6 mark on Purdue’s home field.
The last four matchups in West Lafayette, however, have been split.
Purdue is in the midst of a 19-game winless streak against top 25 opponents and they are just 1-7 all-time against the 7th-ranked team in the nation.
The Boilermakers are 256-150-13 all-time in Ross-Ade Stadium. The Buckeyes are 196-77-10 all-time in Big Ten road games.
Jim Tressel is 26-7 in his career in Big Ten road games and 5-1 all-time against Purdue.
The Buckeyes have outscored the Boilermakers 1,215-666 in this series.
A victory for Ohio State would tie the Big Ten record for consecutive road wins at 17, with Michigan (1988-1992).
When Purdue Has The Ball
The Boilermakers started the season running the ball very well, averaging 210.7 yards rushing per game over the first three games. Since then they’ve only averaged 79.7 per game. Last week against Minnesota was the first time Purdue topped the 100-yard rushing mark since the third week of the season against Northern Illinois.
Like his team, Purdue running back Ralph Bolden started the season very strong, rushing for 234 yards in the season opener against Toledo and 123 yards against Oregon. But the best he has done since then was a 67-yard day against Notre Dame. Bolden is a very good back and has tremendous quickness and cutback ability, but it’s been a month since he’s had any running room whatsoever. That probably won't change much this week. Due to his quickness he is always a threat to break a long one. If Bolden even approaches 100 yards you can bet he’s had at least one 35-yard run mixed in somewhere.
However, after opening the season by giving up 186 yards rushing to Navy, the Buckeyes have only been allowing an average of 69.8 yards rushing per game to their opponents, so we shouldn’t expect much better than that from Purdue.
Defensive tackle Dexter Larimore is out again this week, which cuts the defensive tackle rotation from seven to six. However, Todd Denlinger and Doug Worthington have both been performing very well, and with the offensive tackles busy trying to contain defensive ends Cameron Heyward, Thaddeus Gibson and Nathan Williams, the Buckeye linebackers will again be free to run around and make tackles. We saw a perfect example of that last week when weakside linebacker Ross Homan finished the game with 15 tackles and middle linebacker Brian Rolle finished with 14 of his own.
One area where the Boilermakers may get a few additional yards on the ground is from quarterback Joey Elliott. He had a 58-yard touchdown run against Northern Illinois and a 28-yard run against Minnesota. He can move around in the pocket to give himself some time, but on Saturday, he may want to look to run instead of pass if his first or second choice isn’t available.
Elliott will pass out of multiple formations. Purdue still runs their standard shotgun attack, but Elliott will also be under center at times. The short passes will still rule the day, however.
Receiver Keith Smith leads the team with 42 catches for 585 yards and four touchdowns. He is a chain-mover and 34 of his catches have gone for either first downs or touchdowns. He is a strong receiver who can fight through defenders in order to gain position on the football. While he may not be a blazer, he gets forward quickly and doesn’t try to dance.
The big-play receiver is Aaron Valentine. While his 12.3 yard per catch average is lower than Smith’s 13.9, Valentine has the speed to take any of Joey Elliott’s short passes the distance. They key will be to make sure the first man tackles Valentine, or at least slows him down enough for the pursuit to get there.
Keith Carlos is the third receiver and he’s had issues with drops, specifically last week when he had three or four drops in the first half alone. The Boilers have also gotten back to throwing to the tight end, which is something that Head Coach Danny Hope wanted to do this season. The numbers aren’t huge, but tight end Kyle Adams does have 16 catches on the season, so the defense can’t afford to forget about him.
Joey Elliott is throwing for 262.5 yards per game, but much of that success has been negated by his nine interceptions. Expect either Ross Homan or Brian Rolle to get an interception this week as they drop into a zone and wait for Elliott to look right through them.
For the season, Purdue has already turned the ball over 20 times and has a -9 turnover ratio. Given the success the Buckeyes have had forcing turnovers (14) you have to think the Ohio State thievery will continue this week. If it does, Purdue has no chance.
Along with his ability after the catch, receiver Aaron Valentine is also a very good special-teamer. He is leading the Big Ten in punt returns, averaging 13.7 yards per return and already has a 62-yard touchdown on the season. He’s only averaging 19.5 yards per kickoff return, but the potential is obviously there. Valentine currently leads the conference in all purpose yards, averaging 145.2 yards per game. He will be a factor everywhere but defense on Saturday.
Place-kicker Carson Wiggs has a big leg and has already made a 59-yard field goal this season. He is 4-6 on field goal attempts, his misses coming from 38 and 60 yards. Only four of his 60 kickoffs have gone for touchbacks, so either Lamaar Thomas or Ray Small will have an opportunity or two for some more excitement in the return game.
When Ohio State Has The Ball
The Buckeyes will travel to West Lafayette with a depleted backfield. Running backs Boom Herron and Jaamal Berry won’t be available, so once again the running game will fall on Brandon Saine and freshman Jordan Hall. Jermil Martin may also get a few looks this week, though likely only if the Buckeyes are in a comfortable position.
Saine has performed well when called upon. Even though he was held in check last week (14 carries for 55 yards) he has had a 30-yard carry in three of his last four games. He still hasn’t reached the endzone this season, but that should change this week.
The Buckeyes were only able to average 3.6 yards per carry last week against the Badgers and they will need to show that they are better than that number this week. Purdue is tenth in the conference in run defense (allowing 167.3 yards per game), so Ohio State really needs to set a tone in this one and make some noise on the ground.
Quarterback Terrelle Pryor will again be a focus of the running game--at least for Purdue’s defense. They will have several sets of eyes on him at all times in hopes of negating his athleticism and forcing the Buckeyes to beat them with Pryor’s arm.
The Boilermakers aren’t pushovers in the pass defense department, however. Yes, the defense as a whole is allowing a league-worst 30.5 points per game, but the pass defense is fourth in the conference in pass efficiency defense.
Purdue has a veteran secondary, but it’s not just the defensive backs who excel in pass coverage. All three starting linebackers have interceptions this season and they are all active disrupters. Starting strongside linebacker Jason Werner has had a long fight with durability in his five-year career, but he’s making the most of his last season at Purdue. He leads the team with 50 tackles and 11 tackles for loss. His three sacks are second on the team behind defensive end Ryan Kerrigan.
Speaking of Kerrigan, last week the Buckeye offensive tackles had trouble with Wisconsin pass rusher O’Brien Schofield, but they should be a bit more capable of containing Kerrigan. That doesn’t mean it will happen, it just means he’s not as freakishly athletic as Schofield.
The Boilermakers are likely going to take a page from the Badger defensive attack last week and beg the Buckeyes to beat them with the pass. Terrelle Pryor wanted to go deep quite a bit last week, but couldn’t always pull the trigger. Likewise, Jim Tressel wanted to call more deep passes, but the game situation rarely allowed it. As of right now, there’s no reason we won’t see a few of those wanted deep balls streaking across the West Lafayette sky on Saturday.
Ohio State punter Jon Thoma is currently tenth in the conference in punting, averaging just 38.9 yards per punt. But as long as the Buckeyes continue to eliminate any return yardage, they can live with it. Over the next few weeks, however, the Buckeyes are going to need more from Thoma in order to keep field position on their side.
Place-kicker Aaron Pettrey continues to lead the Big Ten in scoring, averaging 8.7 points per game. He is 5-5 on the season kicking field goals of 40 yards or more.
Last week, the Buckeyes finally got a homerun out of their return game when Ray Small returned a third quarter kickoff 96 yards for a touchdown. It was just his second return of the season and he is now averaging 71 yards per kickoff return. Purdue is giving up 23 yards per kick return this season, so the Buckeyes look to have another prime opportunity for a big play on their hands.
How It’ll End Up
The Purdue defense will obviously load up to stop the run against the Buckeyes, but that doesn’t mean the Buckeyes won’t first try to see how stout that Boilermaker wall is.
And lesser teams have run well against Purdue, so Ohio State should be able to as well. It may just take a few completed passes to loosen things up.
The Boilermakers’ last two opponents have had average starting field positions of the 42 and 44-yard line. The Buckeyes probably won’t be able to match those numbers, but they should definitely be in suitable field position throughout.
The field position battle will keep the Purdue offense at bay and the Buckeye defense will be able to continue their weekly wreaking.
Brandon Saine will have his second career 100-yard rushing day and Terrelle Pryor may very well have his third.
After not scoring a single offensive touchdown against the Boilermakers last year, the Buckeyes will more than make up for it this time around.
Ohio State 27 - Purdue 10
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