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Ohio State vs. Wisconsin Preview By Tony Gerdeman |
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On Saturday, Wisconsin (5-0) and #9 Ohio State (4-1) will meet for the 75th time.
The Buckeyes lead the series 52-17-5 all-time, including a 28-7-3 mark in Columbus.
The two teams have split the last eight meetings and the Badgers, who are ranked 25th in the Coaches’ Poll, have won three of the last four in Ohio Stadium.
Ohio State is 127-104-12 against ranked opponents all-time. Ohio State Head Coach Jim Tressel is 33-13 against ranked opponents in his tenure with the Buckeyes.
Wisconsin Head Coach Bret Bielema is 3-6 in his career against ranked teams, but 0-3 against top ten teams, losing by an average score of 38-12.
Ohio State owns an all-time conference winning percentage of .696, which is the best in the Big Ten.
The Buckeyes are 256-112-18 all-time in home conference games.
When Wisconsin Has The Ball
The Badgers have long been known as a running team with massive offensive lines and a sometimes adequate passing game. Most of that holds true this season as well, except that the passing game is a little bit better than “adequate”.
Quarterback Scott Tolzien is currently leading the Big Ten in passing efficiency (154.6) by a wide margin. The Badgers threw eleven touchdown passes all of last season; so far this season, Tolzien already has nine. He is completing nearly two-thirds of his passes and has only thrown three interceptions. His 209 yards passing per game only rates seventh in the conference, but if he was lacking a running game like those quarterbacks above him in yards per game, you can bet his numbers would be better.
Despite the preseason hype directed at quarterbacks Terrelle Pryor, Darryl Clark and Juice Williams, Tolzien is actually playing better than any quarterback in the conference. (Yes, even better than Tate Forcier.)
Tolzien is the prototypical “takes what you give him” kind of quarterback. He frequently looks for his tight ends--especially Garrett Graham--and is perfectly fine completing the easy pass rather than forcing the ball into a tough situation. In fact, only one receiver has a catch over 22 yards, and that’s Isaac Anderson, who has catches of 80, 44 and 45 yards.
Sophomore receiver Nick Toon is second on the team in receptions with 22 (for 269 yards and two touchdowns). He moves the chains and can go up and get a ball in traffic. He works over the middle quite a bit, so when cornerbacks Chimdi Chekwa and Devon Torrence are chasing him laterally, there may need to be a safety or linebacker over the middle to break up any possible receptions.
The number one weapon in the passing game, however, is Garrett Graham. He leads the team in receptions with 23 (for 268 yards) and touchdowns with four. Over the last two weeks, he’s had twelve receptions, three of which have gone for touchdowns. He will be all over the place. He will catch the ball over the middle, in the flats, in the corners, on screens. Everywhere. And the Badgers will frequently have two tight ends on the same side of the field and Tolzien will just pick whichever is left uncovered by the linebackers.
Wisconsin has a very effective passing offense, and the Buckeyes are going to have to do a number of things to combat it. The top of the checklist, however, should be to get pressure on Tolzien. To this point, the Badgers have only given up two sacks, both against Fresno State.
We will probably also see plenty of zone blitzes, hoping to catch Tolzien dropping passes off sooner than he should. If the Buckeyes do this enough, he will have to hold the ball longer than he likes, which may provide the defense enough time to actually get to him in the backfield.
Most of the Ohio State defense should be playing fairly close to the line of scrimmage, and not just because of the running threat of tailback John Clay. Due to the short passing game that the Badgers employ, there’s really no need to play too far off of the Wisconsin receivers. If the cornerbacks are holding their ground and the linebackers and safeties are roughing up the tight ends, Tolzien may not be able to find open receivers, in which case he’ll either get sacked, throw the ball away, or throw it up for his receivers to make a play. The Buckeyes would be happy with any one of those three scenarios.
As you may have suspected, however, this isn’t just a passing offense. The Badgers also know how to run the ball a little bit.
John Clay is currently leading the Big Ten in rushing, averaging 116.4 yards per game, which is also good for fifth in the nation. There are few more patient runners in the conference, and there are none bigger. Clay’s size (6’1” 248) and strength allow him to make holes where there really aren’t any. But more often than not, he doesn’t have to look too hard to find them. His offensive line is massive and mobile, and it doesn’t hurt that he frequently has two tight ends and a fullback blocking for him as well.
The Buckeye front seven is going to have a long day trying to stop the run against Clay and fellow tailback Zach Brown. Fortunately, the defensive line is constantly rotating, and it’s done without any drop off. Over the last three games, the Buckeyes have allowed an average of just 37.6 yards rushing.. They will be fresh for this game, and they will need to remain that way for its entirety because Clay tends to wear on defenses. Last week against Minnesota, he carried the ball 26 times for 159 yards in the second half.
The Buckeyes are going to have to hit the line of scrimmage hard and disrupt the Badger running game. If they can get to Clay before he gets started, he’s a much easier back to stop. However, if he’s getting through the front four and then brushing off linebackers like mere annoyances, the secondary is going to have some issues bringing him down. It is also going to be very interesting to see some collisions between Clay and undersized middle linebacker Brian Rolle. Rolle and weakside linebacker Ross Homan will likely both need to be around double digits in tackles if they are going to stifle this Badger running game.
The special teams could provide a necessary spark for the Badgers if the offense isn’t getting it done. Bret Bielema takes special teams very seriously. In his tenure, Wisconsin is 26-2 when they have an average starting field position better than their opponents.
Punter Brad Nortman and placekicker Philip Welch both have powerful legs and can kick the ball a long way, which may finally allow the Buckeyes to get some return yardage under their belts. Much like Ohio State, Wisconsin has yet to get it going in the return game, despite having receiver David Gilreath returning kicks again. The Buckeyes can’t be lax in this area, however, because Gilreath is always a candidate to make a big play on special teams (even if it has never happened).
When Ohio State Has The Ball
With the flu hitting the Buckeye offensive line this week, it remains to be seen exactly who is going to be able to play. And whoever does make it into the game, it’s probably a safe bet that a few of them will be playing more than one position. This is a rather versatile offensive line, but it’s already thin with the injury to right tackle Jim Cordle. Eventually, the losses will start piling up and because of this, the Badger defense might make some significant dents at times.
However, the Wisconsin defense is also a forgiving lot. Against FBS opponents, the Badgers are giving up 27 points per game. And they would be giving up even more than that if not for their 15 turnovers forced this season, which leads the Big Ten. They have forced three or more turnovers in four straight games. The Buckeyes can’t afford to make it five straight.
Quarterback Terrelle Pryor will need to protect the ball better than he has to this point, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t feel confident going downfield against this defense. The Badgers will show a lot of eight-man fronts with safety Jay Valai almost playing like another linebacker. If they do this to try and stop a quickly improving running game they will be susceptible to play-action passing.
Because of the shotgun look that the Buckeyes have gone to, the Badgers may be forced to play more straight up--or even a nickel look. If they don’t have eight in the box, it will be tough for the Badgers to shut down a running game that has averaged 232 yards rushing per game over the last three weeks.
Part of that running game lately has been buoyed by the blocking of tight end Jake Ballard who is now one of those Buckeyes battling the flu. It remains to be seen whether the Buckeyes will continue to employ the running plays that saw Ballard block as an H-Back, or whether they’ll scrap it all together because they don’t have anybody else on the roster who can block the same way Ballard does.
And it’s not just a question of who is going to be blocking, but also a question of who is going to be running. Starting running back Boom Herron sat out last week with an ankle injury and is probably ready to go this week. But Brandon Saine started in Herron’s place last week and rushed for 113 yards on just 17 carries, giving the Buckeyes their first 100-yard rusher of the year. Saine has averaged 97 yards rushing per game (6.5 yards per carry) over the last two weeks and continues to earn himself more and more opportunities as the schedule moves on.
There is just no way to tell how this offensive line is going to look, and in turn, how the running game will respond. We might see the Buckeyes use Terrelle Pryor a bit more in the running game, or at the very least, moving the pocket.
When Pryor is drops back to pass, he needs to be very aware of a defense that is second in the conference in sacks with 14. Defensive end O’Brien Schofield leads the conference with 4.5 sacks and also leads the nation in tackles for loss with 11.0.
Like OSU's Thaddeus Gibson, Schofield will play as a stand-up rush end at times. When he does, he’s extremely fast off of the ball. Most teams are able to attack him with screens, or they allow him to lose contain by letting him rush upfield. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, their screen game has never been very good, though the fear of losing contain against Terrelle Pryor could slow O’Brien down a bit.
The Badgers have an average secondary and there will be open lanes for Pryor to throw the ball. Wisconsin is giving up 235 yards passing per game so far, and it’s not like those yards are solely in comeback attempts, because the Badgers haven’t built enough leads for the opponent to have to throw the ball yet. They do have a knack for intercepting passes though, having already picked off eight passes this year.
If Wisconsin continues to employ their modified 4-4 look with Jay Valai up with the linebackers, receiver Dane Sanzenbacher should make some plays down the seams in front of free safety Chris Maragos. As long as the offensive line can give Terrelle Pryor just a little bit of time, he should have some open receivers to throw to.
The Ohio State special teams continues to be good enough, but they will need their best week this week. Bret Bielema loves to play field position just like Jim Tressel, so this game may end up being a punter’s dream--or nightmare.
The Badgers have had a few coverage issues in the return game. The kickoff returns haven’t been too bad for the Buckeyes so far, and they’ve shown quite a bit of misdirection already. Don’t be surprised if that continues this week. Ray Small has yet to show anything as a punt returner this season, which is surprising given his past. And right now, folks are relieved when the punt is simply fielded, regardless of return.
How It’ll End Up
The Buckeyes will gear up to stop the running game early, which will leave them vulnerable to the Badger passing game. Tight end Garrett Graham will likely have four or five catches in the first half.
But eventually the Ohio State defense will begin to stifle Wisconsin’s passing attack.
The Badgers will need big plays from John Clay and from their receivers in order to gain chunks of yards. They can’t rely on simply moving the ball in ten-yard increments, because that’s just not going to happen against this defense..
For all of the talk about the Badgers’ offense, this game is going to be won or lost by the Badger defense. If they force turnovers, they won’t be going away.
Terrelle Pryor knows that. The Buckeye quarterback will be careful with the football, instead choosing to make the easy gain instead of the hard one. Then when the opportunity presents itself, the Buckeyes will strike deep. This will, in turn, open the running game for the Buckeyes, which will have the Badgers guessing at inopportune times.
Even though the Buckeyes have the talent advantage, this one should be close throughout.
Let’s just hope the flu doesn’t make it too close.
Ohio State 30 - Wisconsin 17
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