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Football
BCS Report
By Jeff Amey

Welcome to the 2010 College football season, also known as the last season of college football as we have all known it.  After an off-season full of speculation of conference realignment, some which happened and some that didn't, and even more speculation about how the newly aligned conferences will look, we finally get to playing the games that matter for this season.

No matter what happens, one major player from the past eight seasons won't be a factor in this year's National Championship picture.  The hammer was finally dropped on a USC program that had acted as if they were above the NCAA rule book during the Pete Carroll tenure.  Is it any surprise he bolts for the NFL just before major sanctions are handed down?  Any which way, the Trojans are banned from the post-season for the next two seasons and hamstrung by scholarship restrictions that will keep them from being a contender for National Championship for what will probably be years to come.

Several other SEC and ACC schools and individual players are also under investigation for agent misconduct.  Nothing has been handed down yet, but there are some big time players from several schools that could be done at the college level before all is said and done.  Add in the investigation at the University of Michigan, and you get the idea.  This was a turbulent off-season, and I think we're all - players, coaches, and fans - glad to finally just be getting to the field.

Let's take a swing around the conferences, making a few predictions along the way, then I'll give my pre-season top 10, which will probably be completely different by the end of the season.

ACC

Out of Conference, 2009-- 33-22 (60%)

Vs. BCS, 2009-- 12-15 (44%), 3-4 in bowls

Number of new coaches-- 2 (Virginia and Florida State)

Coaches on Hot Seat-- Ralph Fridgen (Maryland)

Predicted Conference Championship Game-- Clemson vs. Virginia Tech

Predicted Champion-- Virginia Tech

Conference Rank-- 4th

Outlook-- This conference finally looks to be on the up-swing after two very lackluster seasons in which there were no remaining undefeated teams just three weeks into the season.  The media consensus calls for a Florida State vs. Virginia Tech match up in the Conference Championship game, but I don't see it in the Seminole's case.  Their defense last season was terrible, and the transition to Jimbo Fischer wasn't very smooth.  I have a hard time thinking they put it together in his first season.  Virginia Tech should be good on offense, but their defense was gutted by graduation and will take some time to gel.  They should have a good running game this season, but if it's stopped can Tyrod Taylor win games with his arm?  Miami is also a trendy pick this pre-season, but I'm not sold on their offense either.  North Carolina returns the most on both sides of the ball in the conference and could surprise if they stay eligible, and I'm also high on Georgia Tech.

Big East

Out of Conference, 2009-- 36-10 (78%)

Vs. BCS, 2009-- 10-9 (53%), 4-2 in bowls

Number of new coaches-- 3 (Cincinnati, USF, Louisville)

Coaches on Hot Seat-- none

Predicted Conference Champion-- West Virginia

Conference Rank-- 5th

Outlook-- Had there not been so much turnover in coaching staffs and more players returning to the teams that have their coaches back, I might have ranked this conference higher this pre-season.  The Big East won 78% of their non-conference games in 2009, behind only the SEC and was the only other conference to have a winning record against other BCS schools.  I don't think the Big East will be able to build on that success this season, however, and I think that Cincinnati and USF will both take a significant step back.  As for the conference race, I think it will come down to Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and Connecticut.  The Huskies get both other contenders at home, and I'm tempted to pick them for the title, but I think West Virginia pulls through in a competitive three team race.

Big Ten

Out of Conference, 2009-- 36-15 (71%)

Vs. BCS, 2009-- 9-12 (43%), 4-3 in bowls

Number of new coaches-- none

Coaches on Hot Seat-- Rich Rodriguez (Michigan) and Ron Zook (Illinois)

Predicted Conference Champion-- Ohio State

Conference Rank-- 2nd

Outlook-- A wealth of talent returns to the top six contenders for the conference this season, and with some relative stability in coaching staffs this off-season, this looks to be the deepest the Big Ten has been in a long time.  Depending on how the Ohio State defense gels, the Buckeyes look to have the best team on paper.  The second group just behind them - Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State - all seem about equal and any one of them might emerge as a legitimate candidate to take the title.  Northwestern has established itself as a firm second tier school under Pat Fitzgerald, and Michigan might climb back to that status this season as well.  Hopefully, we can all enjoy a competitive and exciting season, because it seems all hell is going to break loose for next year with the addition of Nebraska.

Big XII

Out of Conference, 2009-- 39-17 (70%)

Vs. BCS, 2009-- 8-10 (44%), 4-4 in bowls

Number of new coaches-- 2 (Texas Tech and Kansas)

Coaches on Hot Seat-- Dan Hawkins (Colorado)

Predicted Conference Championship Game-- Oklahoma vs. Nebraska

Predicted Champion-- Nebraska

Conference Rank-- 3rd

Outlook-- No conference was hit harder or in more ways this off-season than the Big XII.  Whether it was graduation (Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State), coaching change under bad circumstances (Texas Tech and Kansas), defection (Nebraska and Colorado), or just speculation of defection (the entire South Division), it was a rough off-season.  In what will be the last season of the Big XII as we've known it for the last 16 years, there doesn't seem to be a team worthy of contention for the National Title this year.  Nebraska probably comes closest, but hasn't shown enough offensive firepower under Bo Pelini to be considered a major contender.  Expect some bad blood between Nebraska and Colorado and the members who decided to stay in the conference, especially Texas.

Pac-10

Out of Conference, 2009-- 23-14 (62%)

Vs. BCS, 2009-- 9-10 (47%), 2-5 in bowls

Number of new coaches-- 1 (USC)

Coaches on Hot Seat-- None

Predicted Conference Champion-- Oregon

Conference Rank-- 6th

Outlook-- With the gutting of USC and Oregon's loss of QB Jeremiah Masoli, who eventually landed at Mississippi, this conference is taking a huge step back as far as National Title contention goes.  I still think Oregon wins the Conference, but it will probably be with at least two losses.  I give as many as seven teams a legitimate shot at taking the Conference, everyone but USC, Arizona State and Washington State.  Will a team step up, or will we see a 9-3 Rose Bowl team from this group?

SEC

Out of Conference, 2009-- 48-10 (83%)

Vs. BCS, 2009-- 15-8 (65%), 6-4 in bowls

Number of new coaches-- 2 (Tennessee and Kentucky)

Coaches on Hot Seat-- Mark Richt (Georgia), Steve Spurrier (South Carolina)

Predicted Championship Game-- Florida vs. Arkansas

Predicted Champion-- Arkansas

Conference Rank-- 1st

Outlook-- Graduation hit this entire conference hard this past off-season, and the dominance of last season - highest percentage of OOC games won, vs. BCS, and won most Bowl games - probably will not be repeated.  A lot of pundits have jumped back on Alabama and Florida's respective bandwagons, but I think both teams take a step back to the pack this season.  The Tide lost nearly all of last season's stingy defense, and while they've recruited well, they don't have much experience on that side of the ball.  Florida lost a lot of senior leaders including the living god, Tim Tebow.  South Carolina has their best shot at a division title since joining the SEC, and I think both Arkansas and Auburn have legitimate shots at taking the West.  It will be interesting to see how this conference plays out.

Best of the Rest

This is where the non-BCS conference teams and Notre Dame reside as long as they stay eligible for a BCS berth.  I consider a team out of contention if they have one loss early in the season, and if they aren't in the top 16 in the BCS later.  Notre Dame is out after they lose their fourth game or drop too low in BCS standings.  That being said, these are the teams I think have the best chance of making a BCS bowl in descending order.

Boise State (WAC)-- 14-0 in 2009, won Fiesta Bowl

TCU (MWC)-- 12-1 in 2009, lost Fiesta Bowl

Houston (C-USA)-- 10-4 in 2009, lost Armed Forces Bowl

Notre Dame (Ind.)-- 6-6 in 2009, no Bowl

Utah (MWC)-- 10-3 in 2009, won Poinsettia Bowl

Fresno State (WAC)-- 8-5 in 2009, lost New Mexico Bowl

Pre-Season Top 10

1)  Ohio State (0-0)  Next:  vs. Marshall (Thurs.)

I don't like starting the Buckeyes with the Bulls-eye, but I can't put Alabama here with so much uncertainty on the defensive side of the ball.

2)  Boise State (0-0)  Next:  vs. Virginia Tech (Mon.)

The Broncos deserve their lofty pre-season ranking, but they'll have to fight to maintain it.  At least they have two BCS teams on the schedule this year.

3) Alabama (0-0)  Next:  vs. San Jose State

I'm tempted to put Arkansas here since I picked them to win the SEC, but I can't bring myself to do it.  Ingram and the offense are going to be tough to stop.

4) Nebraska (0-0)  Next: vs. Western Kentucky

I really think the Cornhuskers are going to be the team to beat in the Big XII this season.  All they need is a little offense to go with that defense.

5) Oklahoma (0-0)  Next: vs. Utah State

I get the feeling I'm over-rating the Sooners here.  We'll know more about them week two vs. Florida State.

6) Florida (0-0)  Next: vs. Miami (OH)

The Gators have a pretty tough schedule this year.  I'm not sure they reach double digit wins for the regular season.

7) Iowa (0-0)  Next: vs. Eastern Illinois

The Hawkeyes are getting a lot of hype this pre-season.  If they manage to get to 7-0 this season, they're for real.

8) Arkansas (0-0)  Next:  vs. Tennessee Tech

This is probably one that has some of you scratching your heads out there.  We'll see.  I have a feeling about the Razorbacks this season.

9) Virginia Tech (0-0)  Next: vs. Boise State

The Hokies can save BCS conference teams a huge headache with a win over Boise State.  This is probably the best chance they have for a loss this season.

10) Texas (0-0)  Next: at Rice

It's possible I have the Longhorns too low, but I don't think so yet.  They should roll into the Oklahoma game 4-0, though.

The Next Ten:  TCU, Oregon, Clemson, West Virginia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Auburn, North Carolina

Pre-season Heisman List

Mark Ingram is the odds-on favorite to win a second Heisman right now, but as we've seen the last three seasons with returning Heisman winners, winning a second one isn't very easy.  My top five heading into this season:

1) Mark Ingram  HB  Alabama

2) Terrelle Pryor  QB  Ohio State

3) Case Keenum  QB  Houston

4) Kellen Moore  QB  Boise State

5) Ryan Mallett  QB  Arkansas

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