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Football
Big Ten Countdown - Number 9
By Tony Gerdeman

9. Illinois Fighting Illini

Predicted Finish

5-7 (3-5)

Two-Cent Overview

A more passing-oriented offense has been installed thanks to new offensive coordinator Paul Petrino. New quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase is just a redshirt freshman, and has been lauded for his maturity—though some wide receivers still need to emerge in order to help him out. Fortunately, there are two good running backs returning running behind a mostly veteran offensive line. The defense returns a lot of starters, but even beyond that, they are finally returning some experience at every position and reliance upon freshmen will be minimal.

Schedule
Sept. 4 Missouri (in St. Louis) (L)
Sept. 11 Southern Illinois (W)
Sept. 18 Northern Illinois (W)
Oct. 2 Ohio State (L)
Oct. 9 at Penn State (L)
Oct. 16 at Michigan State (L)
Oct. 23 Indiana (W)
Oct. 30 Purdue (W)
Nov. 6 at Michigan (L)
Nov. 13 Minnesota (W)
Nov. 20 vs Northwestern (at Wrigley Field) (L)
Dec. 3 at Fresno State (L)

Team Motto

“Let's ski all the way to the Rose Bowl!”

Goal

Upper-division finish. A bowl game should always be a given if you're not Indiana (or Michigan), so Illinois needs to shoot for something higher. Head Coach Ron Zook is talking about this team having as much talent as his Rose Bowl team, so it would probably be a pretty good idea to show it on the field.

Best Case

Honestly, the schedule isn't terrible. There's no Iowa and there's no Wisconsin. They get Ohio State at home and the road games are against teams who don't have a significant talent advantage over them. If everything went as it COULD, this is a ten-win team. But we all know better than that, don't we?

Worst Case

They lose to Northern Illinois and to all three of their “easy” conference home games and finish with just one win on the season. That's what a Ron Zook team brings you, though. Any time you have the potential to win ONE game or TEN games, something has to change.

Five Questions Looking For Answers

1. How effective will this new Juice-less offense be?
2. Can Jason Ford and Mikel Leshoure be for the Illini in 2010 what Rashard Mendenhall was for them in 2007?
3. Is this the year middle linebacker Martez Wilson realizes his potential?
4. Will new defensive coordinator Vic Koenning's new hectic hybrid defense cause good havoc or bad havoc?
5. How will this team react to having Zook off in the shadows?

Something To Look For

A less-involved head coach. Zook brought in a new offensive and defensive coordinator and has pretty much let them do their jobs without interfering. And it's a good move. He knows that his job is on the line, and he knows his fate is better off in somebody else's hands than his own.

Returning Starters

Six on offense, six on defense and both kicking specialists.

Best Player

Middle linebacker Martez Wilson. This is under the assumption that Wilson is the player that he was supposed to be last season prior to his injury in the opener. Before he went down, Zook said he had as much talent and ability as any middle linebacker he had coached, and since that includes America's own J Leman, then we have to assume Wilson is the real deal. There's no disputing his athleticism and measurables. He's 6'4” 250 pounds and can run like a safety. But he needs to stop being known as an athlete and start being known as a linebacker. And soon.

Second-Best Player

Cornerback Terry Hawthorne. This, like the Wilson pick above, is a bit of a projection. Hawthorne played in all twelve game last year as a true freshman and started five. He had flashes of brilliance mixed in with bouts of inconsistency. It's clear that the natural ability is there—now it's just a matter of teaching him how to be consistently brilliant.

Best Chance For a Big Loss

Missouri. Illinois has opened the season against Missouri for the last three years, and has gone 0-3. In those three games, they are allowing an average of 43 points to the Tigers. Granted, until last year's 37-9 loss, the scoring in the series was actually close. But still, Missouri is returning a now-veteran quarterback, offensive line, and an offensive system that the team has been using forever. We'll know a lot about Zook's new staff pretty early on.

Most Important Game

Ohio State. The Missouri game sets the tone for the season, but the Ohio State game is the conference opener and the Illini have an extra week to prepare for it. Regardless of what happens in the Missouri game, a win over Ohio State will either right all wrongs, or build the Illini's momentum to a massive pace. However, if they lose to the Buckeyes, then it's the “same ol', same ol'” and Illinois faces the dangers of simply going through the motions—especially if they've already lost to Missouri and/or Northern Illinois.

Best Road Game To Pack Up The Family Truckster And Travel To

Northwestern at Wrigley Field. As if there was any other answer. Just remember, you're going to a stadium where anything that CAN go wrong for a team WILL go wrong, and you're kind of bringing in a head coach who fits that description perfectly. But who knows, maybe two wrongs will finally make a right and that tub of gasoline that you threw in the fireplace WON'T ignite.

Best Reason They Won't Be Undefeated

The three-game opening Big Ten stretch will be too much to overcome. Ohio State at home followed by road games at Penn State and Michigan State won't make life easy for Illinois. But even if they somehow got through all of that, they're still always going to be susceptible to the proverbial loss that should never happen (that's not really a proverb, btw).

Best Reason They Will Be Undefeated

The schedule is about as easy as you could hope for in the Big Ten. Unfortunately, though they may have a Rose Bowl schedule, they have Pizza Bowl talent. But as we've seen in the past with Ron Zook, sometimes things just somehow fall into place.

Game They Shouldn't Lose, But Could

Northern Illinois. The Huskies are one of the favorites in the MAC and they return 16 starters. That number doesn't even include All-MAC running back Chad Spann, who rushed for 1,038 yards and 19 touchdowns last season. Nine starters also return from the best defense in the conference last year. Everybody in a Northern Illinois jersey is going to want to make their presence known to the big state school.

Player People Are Expecting Too Much From

Bandit Michael Buchanan. The Bandit is what Illinois is calling their hybrid defensive end/linebacker that everybody is using now. It's apparently one of the linchpins of Koenning's defense and is expected to terrorize quarterbacks at will. The problem is that Buchanan is a 6'6” 225 pound sophomore who will be battling offensive lineman who outweigh him by 100 pounds. Heck, the two likely starters at safety for Illinois weigh as much as Buchanan. He may eventually be very good—and his tremendous athleticism will certainly make life easier for him, but to put so much on him so early may not bring about the rewards that have been initially anticipated.

Player People Will Be Pleasantly Surprised By

Defensive tackle Corey Liuget. Liuget came to Illinois out of Florida despite offers from Miami, LSU and Florida State and has been fairly productive in his time so far (62 tackles in two seasons). But now a junior, Liuget seems to have rededicated himself in the offseason, dropping 25 pounds (down to around 290) and increasing his speed and agility in an effort to make more plays in the backfield. With the loss of fellow tackle Josh Brent, Liuget's role on this team has become magnified, but at least he realizes it and seems to be welcoming it.

Best Newcomer

Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase. As a quarterback, you have to love hearing this from your offensive coordinator: "I hear other people say it, but I never tell our quarterback to 'manage the game.' I want him to be aggressive and WIN the game. Whatever it takes. I'm the offensive coordinator, and I'm not out to win with defense.” So it would probably be smart to assume that Scheelhaase will put up some numbers this year, and look good doing it—at times. But let's not forget that he's still just a redshirt freshman. However, since he was named the starter out of the spring, he's gotten a starter's snaps and his comfort level grows daily. More from Petrino: “Scheelhaase knows coverages, is an accurate passer and is as fast as anybody on our team. I'd say his number one trait is speed. We always change our offense to fit the quarterback, and we've done that again this year."

Something They Do Well

Make Rich Rodriguez look very, very bad. Granted, this isn't something unique to Illinois, but the Illini have beaten Michigan by 25 points each of the last two seasons. And let's not forget that these are Illinois teams that have won a combined eight games in those two years. Most have simply chalked the losses up to a combination of Michigan's bad defense and Illinois' ability to run the ball from many different angles. Well, unfortunately for the Wolverines, not a lot has changed in either of those areas this year. The one difference, however, is that Juice Williams is gone. And somehow, for that reason alone, we are going to go against one of the few things Illinois does well, and pick Rodriguez to finally get a win over Zook.

Something They Don't Do So Well

Get turnovers. Last year, the Illini were only on the positive side of the turnover battle three times against the Big Ten—against Michigan State, Michigan and Minnesota. Which isn't saying much considering the three teams we're talking about. The last time Illinois finished the season on the positive side of the the turnover ratio was 2001, which is also the last year they won a Big Ten Championship.

What's Improved?

Attitude. The new blood in the coaching staff has apparently raised the tempo of practices, but somehow calmed the demeanor of the players and their head coach at the same time. This, of course, begs the question of if the team and coach is noticeably calmer this season, how panicked did they used to look? And does calmer mean better? Regardless, it almost appears as though Illinois has gotten the boost that a new regime brings without actually having to change the dictator.

What's Gotten Worse?

Experience at wide receiver. Illinois lost two starters in Arrelious Benn and Chris Duvalt, and even though they were criminally underused last year (especially Benn), they will be missed. All that's left for Scheelhaase are inconsistent and unproven receivers. There is talent here, but they will be looking for help from about four different freshmen this season.

Anything Else We Should Know About?

There are no such things as a left side or right side on Illinois' offensive line anymore. Instead, everything is “strong side” or “weak side”. This means that the starting strong side tackle, for example, will flip from the left side to the right side depending on the formation and play call. It's one of the many wrinkles that Petrino brought with him from Arkansas.

Anything Else?

Expect to still see Eddie McGee get some time at quarterback. McGee will likely be used in some Wildcat packages, and will probably throw more than your typical Wildcat. He says the formation is “explosive”, but we'll have to see whether that's a good explosion or a bad one as the season moves on.

One Prediction

The winner of the Illinois – Michigan game will still have the same head coach next season. The loser will not. (Now you don't know who you should root for, do you?”

Quote Mistakenly Attributed To Joe Paterno

“The coaching staff, the way they've gotten together, the way they've jelled, as I sit in there, I've been able to look at it a little bit differently. I've been able to step back and maybe not be quite as involved. It's been kind of a relief as well.”

Coach Speak

“My wife had me buying appliances this summer, which I've never done in my life and will probably never ever do it again.”

Translated

“While I'm still getting a paycheck, we decided to buy a sweet new Bosch washer and dryer.”

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