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Football
Big Ten Countdown - Number 3 (Tie)
By Tony Gerdeman

3. (tie) Northwestern Wildcats

Predicted Finish

9-3 (6-2)

Two-Cent Overview

Northwestern's “Plug-and-Play” offense trots out their third different quarterback in as many seasons. Receivers should be easy enough to locate, but the running game may be the more important find. Fortunately, a veteran offensive line will help. The defense must replace half of their front four and secondary, but there is experienced depth in both areas. The return of the top four linebackers should help both those in front of them and behind them.

Schedule

Sept. 4 at Vanderbilt (L)
Sept. 11 Illinois State (W)
Sept. 18 at Rice (W)
Sept. 25 Central Michigan (W)
Oct. 2 at Minnesota (W)
Oct. 9 Purdue (W)
Oct. 23 Michigan State (W)
Oct. 30 at Indiana (W)
Nov. 6 at Penn State (L)
Nov. 13 Iowa (W)
Nov. 20 Illinois (W)
Nov. 27 at Wisconsin (L)

Team Motto

“We're optimists around here—we prefer to see the stadium as half-full.”

Goal

As always, a bowl win. This will be the first time in school history that Northwestern has gone to a bowl game three years in a row, but they're still looking for their first bowl win since 1949.

Best Case

An eleven-win season is probably on the far end of extreme, but all it means is that they'd have to win two of the three road games we have them losing right now.

Worst Case

A six-win season and a finish behind Michigan. If that won't make you take a look in the mirror, nothing will.

Five Questions Looking For Answers

1. Will quarterback Dan Persa pick right up where Mike Kafka left off?
2. Can the Wildcats run the ball this year?
3. And is Arby Fields the guy to do it?
4. How will they replace two first team All-Big Ten defensive backs?
5. Can Northwestern get 35,000 fans to come to one of their games?

Something To Look For

Dan Persa will excel. He is basically Mike Kafka 2.0. He was mainly a runner early on, just like Kafka, but will now be counted on to deliver the full extent of the Northwestern offense. There's no reason to think he won't. Others have come right in and done it, so why would we suddenly think Persa can't do the same. He's a tremendously hard worker and one of the best athletes on the team. He's a workout freak and his demeanor off the field already has his teammates respecting him on the field. If reliable receivers emerge for Persa the way they did for Kafka, there's no reason we can't expect 3,500 yards of total offense from him.

Returning Starters

Seven on offense, six on defense and the place-kicker.

Best Player

Linebacker Quentin Davie. This time next year, Davie will be in the NFL. He led the Wildcats in tackles last season (90), tackles for loss (11.5) and sacks (5), and should do the same again this year—provided he can hold off middle linebacker Nate Williams.

Second-Best Player

Cornerback Jordan Mabin. Despite only pulling down two interceptions, Mabin still made himself known on defense by amassing 75 tackles. Just a junior, he now has 24 starts under his belt and will need to emerge as a leader in the secondary. He should get some All-Conference notoriety this season.

Best Chance For a Big Loss

At Wisconsin. This is a tough question without Ohio State on the schedule. As amazing as it sounds, this game could be for at least a share of the Big Ten Championship. Camp Randall is a difficult place to play when there is something on the line, and these players haven't been in anything close to this type of situation before. Plus, their season will already have been deemed a success by this point. Wisconsin will have more to play for.

Most Important Game

Iowa. The last five meetings between these two teams has been won by the underdog (Northwestern is 4-1 over those last five games). Clearly, Northwestern does something right against Iowa, and the Hawkeyes clearly do something wrong against the Wildcats—like four second-quarter turnovers in last year's game. If they want to contend for the Big Ten Championship, then this is a must win.

Best Road Game To Pack Up The Family Truckster And Travel To

At Minnesota. (Yes, Northwestern fans, we realize the category above ends in a preposition.) A trip to Minnesota in early October will be exactly what the doctor ordered. The weather will be nice, it's a new park, and baseball season has been over for five months. Who wouldn't want to spend some time in the House That Glen Built in Tim Brewster's final season at Minnesota?

Best Reason They Won't Be Undefeated

The second half of the conference schedule will be too much to overcome. Even the Indiana game won't be easy. In fact, even though Northwestern is 5-1 against Indiana since 2002, the last time the game was decided by more than a touchdown was a 56-21 Hoosier win in 2001. Playing Illinois in Wrigley Field will make things different, if not more difficult. Northwestern will need to play their very best in at least half of their final six games to come out undefeated.

Best Reason They Will Be Undefeated

They don't play Ohio State. When Ohio State isn't on the schedule, the wins always pile up. It's science.

Game They Shouldn't Lose, But Could

At Vanderbilt. Northwestern should absolutely win this game, but they rarely look good in road openers. If they can win this game, however, ten wins is very much in reach.

Player People Are Expecting Too Much From

Quarterback Dan Persa. No, this isn't a contradiction from above...entirely. But because Northwestern's offense was so successful last year in Mike Kafka's first full season as a starter, people think Persa will hit the ground running. He might, but don't forget that the passing game started a bit slow last season before the coaches realized that Kafka was ready. The same two-game learning curve may be evident this year as well.

Player People Will Be Pleasantly Surprised By

Running back Arby Fields. Fields led the team in rushing last year as a freshman, but he only managed to run for 302 yards and five touchdowns. He admitted that he was mentally lost much of the time last season, but he's completely comfortable now and this offense is second nature to him. Now that he's no longer thinking while he's out there, we'll finally get a look at the real Arby Fields, and see whether or not he's a Big Ten back.

Best Newcomer

Wide receiver Venric Mark. There aren't really a lot of choices, because freshmen generally redshirt at Northwestern, and the current depth chart doesn't really have many freshmen in the two deep. But Mark may make his...um, mark...in the punt return game. Last year in high school, he returned four kickoffs and punts for touchdowns, and had seven others called back. He could also find his way into the wide receiver rotation, but it will be tough.

Something They Do Well

Throw the ball. Last season the Wildcats averaged 286.5 yards passing per game, which ranked 13th in the nation. They lose their top two receivers—and their 148 combined receptions, but much like the quarterback position here, the receivers are simply plugged into the offense and away they go.

Something They Don't Do So Well

Run the ball. Northwestern only averaged 117.8 yards rushing per game last season, which ranked 89th in the nation. Their longest run from scrimmage was only 25 yards, which ranked dead last. With the top four running backs from last season returning, these numbers should improve. But running the ball in the redzone will continue to prove difficult.

What's Improved?

The offensive line. There are four returning starters on the offensive line, though one or two of them may be on the move. The key will be to get the best five on the field, and go from there. Keep an eye on true sophomore Patrick Ward, who was in the rotation all season long last year. If he wins the right tackle spot, then this offensive line could be pretty good because he would be unseating an incumbent and making this line even deeper.

What's Gotten Worse?

The defensive line. Losing defensive end Corey Wootton and tackles Adam Hahn and Marshall Thomas (who started 13 games together) creates an issue here. But two starters on the front four remain in tackle Corbin Bryant and defensive end Vince Browne. Browne led the team in sacks last season (exactly as we predicted, by the way), and Bryant is a fifth-year senior who is quicker and healthier than he was last season. But other players still need to emerge.

Anything Else We Should Know About?

Even though Northwestern lost three members of their starting secondary, there is still plenty of field experience coming back. Safety Brian Peters started five games last year and finished with 67 tackles and five PBUs. The other safety is David Arnold, who also started five games last year, but did so at linebacker due to injuries. He's one of the best athletes on the team and already knows the defense. He should be okay. The cornerback spot opposite Jordan Mabin is a concern, but most of the candidates for that spot have at least one start under their belts as well.

Anything Else?

Superback Drake Dunsmore lost a rib on April 1st. Seriously. Dunsmore had a bout with blood clots in the offseason that were caused when the rib closest to the collarbone and his scalene muscle began pinching the vein, which caused the clots. The operation to remove the rib and the scalene muscle took seven-and-a-half hours. He's apparently ready to go now, and what else would you expect from a superback. He is, however, dealing with other dings this summer, but should be good to go for the season.

One Prediction

Dan Persa will lead the Big Ten in total offense.

Quote Mistakenly Attributed To a Wolverine Player Who Eventually Loses a Position Battle and Then Immediately Transfers

“It’s a competition, but it’s still fun. We’re just out here having fun, playing. We’re out here going at each other’s throats, but it’s a friendly competition. It’s friendly rivalry-type stuff. It’s like a friendship, but we still compete at the same time. It’s pretty cool.” – running back Stephen Simmons

Coach Speak

“I would like to see one of our tailbacks potentially take over the role. I remember back when I played Michigan it seemed like every down it was a different back, and they just kept hitting you, hitting you and hitting you.”

Translation

“My kingdom for an Arby Biakabatuka!”

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