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Football
Big Ten Countdown - Number 7
By Tony Gerdeman

7. Purdue Boilermakers

Predicted Finish

6-6 (3-5)

Two-Cent Overview\

A new and potentially exciting backfield will be called upon to keep the chains moving in West Lafayette. Veteran receivers will be pushed by a newcomer or two. The offensive line needs to replace three starters, but Head Coach Danny Hope is intrigued by the possibilities. The defense is led by a pair of disruptive ends, including Ryan Kerrigan, who had 13 sacks last season. The linebackers all return, but an entirely new secondary will need to emerge.

Schedule

Sept. 4 at Notre Dame (L)
Sept. 11 Western Illinois (W)
Sept. 18 Ball State (W)
Sept. 25 Toledo (W)
Oct. 9 at Northwestern (L)
Oct. 16 Minnesota (W)
Oct. 23 at Ohio State (L)
Oct. 30 at Illinois (L)
Nov. 6 Wisconsin (L)
Nov. 13 Michigan (W)
Nov. 20 at Michigan State (L)
Nov. 27 Indiana (W)

Team Motto

“No more spending New Years Day in lousy West Lafayette!”

Goal

An upper-division finish. It's only happened once in the last five seasons for Purdue, and if Danny Hope wants his program to be a real player in the Big Ten, this is the first step.

Best Case

There are nine or ten wins on this schedule if everything clicks for Purdue. Avoiding Iowa and Penn State makes things even easier.

Worst Case

Three wins. Because their talent level is fairly equal to most of their conference opponents, a bounce here or there that goes the other way could mean a loss every time. Each of the three wins we have them getting in conference could easily be losses with one bad snap.

Five Questions Looking For Answers

1. Is quarterback Robert Marve, who transferred from Miami after having “issues”, now mature enough to lead a Big Ten team?
2. And is he even good enough?
3. Can this piece-meal offensive line come together and produce?
4. Will the Boilermaker defense be able stop anybody on the ground this year?
5. Are there five serviceable defensive backs on this roster?

Something To Look For

Former quarterback Justin Siller is back. Siller is/was a very athletic quarterback who played quite a bit in 2008 (and even get a start in their win over Michigan), but was dismissed from the team in 2009. He has returned in good graces for 2010 and is currently listed as a wide receiver, but will line up everywhere on offense, including quarterback. He could be a very effective wildcat weapon for the Boilers, as well as an ideal candidate for various forms of trickery.

Returning Starters

Five on offense, six on defense and the place-kicker.

Best Player

Defensive end Ryan Kerrigan. Kerrigan may not get the attention that fellow Big Ten defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Cameron Heyward do, but he should. He led the conference in sacks last year, and after an intensive review of his season, he feels he left another dozen on the field. He has essentially dedicated this season to sack gluttony, so offensive tackles better take notice.

Second-Best Player

Wide receiver Keith Smith. Smith pulled in 91 receptions last year for 1,100 yards, leading the conference in both categories. He will be a welcome security blanket for Robert Marve, and should help ease his progression greatly. The one area where Smith could improve would be in finding the endzone a bit more. Of his 91 catches, only six went for touchdowns. If Marve is the quarterback that Danny Hope keeps saying that he is, then Smith's touchdown numbers could double this season.

Best Chance For a Big Loss

At Ohio State. Make no mistake, even though Michigan and Miami are on the Buckeyes' schedule this season, the Purdue game is circled in the same red marker as those other two. Several players have talked about wanting to exact a certain measure of vengeance on the Boilermakers after their 26-18 upset of the 7th-ranked Buckeyes last year. And the fans in Ohio Stadium will be looking forward to it as well. It will not be a pleasant environment for Purdue. (Not that it ever is—Purdue's last win in Columbus came in 1988.)

Most Important Game

At Northwestern. As outrageous as it may sound, the Northwestern game may be the largest obstacle standing in the way of Purdue winning a Big Ten championship. If they can somehow open up their Big Ten schedule with a win at Evanston, it would be an indicator of the skill-level that the Boilermakers possess. Of course, this Big Ten championship would be under the assumption that they beat one of Wisconsin or Ohio State, and that there would be no undefeated teams in the conference. Assume at your own peril.

Best Road Game To Pack Up The Family Truckster And Travel To

At Notre Dame. Who wouldn't want a front row seat to witness the unveiling of the Brian Kelly Era at Notre Dame? Or the ten-year extension he gets at halftime because he's shutting the Boilermakers out 10-0.

Best Reason They Won't Be Undefeated

The Big Ten is making them play Ohio State this year.

Best Reason They Will Be Undefeated

Because they tend to hang around. Last year, five of their seven losses came by a touchdown or less. Purdue turned the ball over 20 times in their first six games in 2009, and lost five of those games by an average of just 6.6 points. They cut down on the turnovers through the second half of the season and look to carry that protective nature over into this year as well. With a renewed emphasis on protecting the ball combined with that same renewed emphasis on actually CAUSING turnovers, the Boilermakers may actually stay on the positive side of the turnover ratio all season long.

Game They Shouldn't Lose, But Could

Michigan. People like to talk about how Purdue owns Rich Rodriguez (and his snake oil), but keep in mind that even though the Boilers are 2-0 against Michigan in the worst era they've ever known, they've only beaten the Wolverines by six points and two points in those two years, respectively. Not quite like the Illini's 25-point win average over Rodriguez, is it? Clearly, the Wolverines have done some things against Purdue these last two seasons that haven't worked against other teams. And there's really no reason to think that that won't continue this year.

Player People Are Expecting Too Much From

Quarterback Robert Marve. When Marve came out of high school, he was one of the most sought after quarterbacks in the country. He started eleven games as a redshirt freshman, but didn't look very good doing it. After sitting out last season due to his transfer, he's been able to refine his game and by all accounts, he has looked pretty good. Of course, Marve coming to Purdue has been the biggest thing to hit West Lafayette since the filming of “Deliverance” (burn!), so folks are expecting big things simply based on the hype that has surrounded him since high school. That doesn't mean he won't meet those expectations, mind you, it just means that he shouldn't have to.

Player People Will Be Pleasantly Surprised By

Cornerback Ricardo Allen. Allen (5'9” 175) is a true freshman that has blown everybody away so far this summer. Receiver Keith Smith said that in his five years at Purdue, he's never seen a freshman come in and play as well as Allen has. Danny Hope loves the way that Allen can stick to his receivers and says that he's always around the ball. Expect Allen to start at one cornerback spot right out of the gate for the Boilers.

Best Newcomer

Quarterback Robert Marve. No, this isn't a contradiction from the comments about expectations above. Purdue's offense allows quarterbacks to look good, and with Marve's arm and ability to move around (4.6), he should put up some quality numbers.

Something They Do Well

Employ strong receivers. Keith Smith (6'2” 226) may not make too many people miss, but when he catches the ball, he rarely goes down without falling forward for a few yards. He's one of the few receivers who can run a third-down route just short of the the marker because he can usually fight forward for the rest. Add in Justin Siller, who tips the scales at 220 pounds, and the Boilers are going to be throwing some brutes out there against 185-pound cornerbacks. Oh, and Purdue is apparently four or five deep at tight end as well, so there's even more muscle for the quarterback to look for.

Something They Don't Do So Well

Stop the run. Purdue has finished last in the conference in stopping the run each of the last two seasons (yep, even worse than Michigan), and they're going to do everything in their power to make sure that it doesn't happen for a third straight year. An emphasis on tackling fundamentals and getting everybody to the ball is the planned solution.

What's Improved?

The athleticism on the offensive line. Since he came back to Purdue in 2008, Danny Hope has been trying to remold the offensive line back to the athletic types that were here a decade or so ago. He has been trying to eliminate the sloppy look for a sleeker one. This has included moving defensive linemen over to offense and utilizing their better speed and explosion. Most noticeably in this regard is right tackle Nick Mondek, who was a defensive lineman for the first two years of his career. The move has truly excited Hope, who calls Mondek a bonafide NFL prospect and potentially the most talented offensive lineman he has ever coached. Perhaps that enthusiasm will change after Mondek plays his first actual game as an offensive lineman.

What's Gotten Worse?

Experience in the secondary. Replacing four starters in the defensive backfield is never easy, and it's even more difficult when you're replacing a secondary that had been starting together for multiple seasons. The positions aren't settled yet, but we can probably expect Ricardo Allen at one corner and junior Albert Evans at one safety. Evans was basically a fifth starter last season as the nickel back. There are still three spots that need to be filled, however.

Anything Else We Should Know About?

Look for quite a few freshmen to be on the field. Danny Hope says that this freshman class will eventually win a championship. I don't know if that's a euphemism for the Old Oaken Bucket now, or if he actually means a championship. Aside from the aforementioned Ricardo Allen, freshman defensive tackle Bruce Gaston and receiver O.J. Ross could both find themselves in the starting lineup at some point this season. Also keep an eye on freshman running back Reggie Pegram, who has impressed so far this summer. The coaches like that he is more advanced in the blocking and receiving game than most freshman backs.

Anything Else?

The running back situation is still a question mark. When last year's starter Ralph Bolden went down with an ACL tear this spring, what was once thought to be a strength became a worry. Those worries, however, have been eased a bit by sophomore Al-Terek McBurse (6'1” 198). Hope likes McBurse's ability to not only run the ball, but catch it out of the backfield as well. McBurse only had four carries last season, however, so even though the potential is there, as of yet, there is no rushing production to speak of. There is a chance Bolden could return later in the year, but if McBurse and Pegram live up to their abilities, a redshirt for Bolden seems likely.

One Prediction

Place-kicker Carson Wiggs will hit a 60-yard field goal this season.

Quote Mistakenly Attributed To Head Basketball Coach Matt Painter

"This is an outstanding freshman class and it's a matter of time before they can go out and lead this team to a championship.” – Danny Hope

Coach Speak

“Thank God it's finally football season. The summer flew by. Probably the fastest summer that I've ever been a part of.”

Translation

“I really enjoyed spending the summer water skiing with Ron Zook, but a person can only take so much of that guy.”

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